So Target loses ~70mm credit card numbers and the news broke on 12/27. Closing price on 12/26 was $62.48. Today the price is about $61 (modest weakness over last day or two). Doesn’t it seem like this stock should be lower purely on sentiment? Also, I’d bet (and did) that this is going to stay in the news and more unsavory facts are going to be revealed.
This is what I call a sentiment short. Fun to do in a PA.
I don’t think the market cares about this kind of stuff. If it didn’t effect the earnings or long-term value of the company, it’s a non-event. You could argue that this messed up TGT’s image with consumers and will result in lower traffic over time but I doubt that is true, most people still need to buy detergent and random household items, and the average TGT shopper isn’t switching to WMT (ughhh).
Bromion, totally agree with you assessment of the event’s effect (or lack thereof) on fundamentals.
I think the narrative will be negative for a while and investors on the margin will sell. You can see this starting to take effect now. If the narritive stays negative and you have negative momentum, then mo will stay negative until the narrative changes…and signs point that it is getting worse before it gets better.
This is just something I noticed that it may be interesting to take a flyer on. Not the type of investment I’d put in a professional vehicle, more of a PA pick.
Bump, just glancing at it, at this price, it looks like it might be a decent long. Not looking to buy and flip but as a long term investment. Going to dig into it tonight and try to get the 10k read and other docs. Any thoughts from the AF braintrust?
I have intel at TGT. The mood is very optimistic with a new CEO coming in. CEOs from within have not been good for the company’s strategy. Someone from Microsoft is being considered at the moment who could have a finger closer to the tech side of things.
My .02 for the long term, I’m having a hard time seeing Targets footprint with Amazon and Wal-Mart’s lead in market share.
This (can you say “this” if you are quoting yourself? Okay, that’s probably douchey).
Anyway these sentiment things can be hard to call but usually seem like non-events to me. Everyone knows this hurts TGT but the exact ramifications are vague to most equity investors.
However, the sentiment certainly turned negative at LifeLock (LOCK) this morning when they had a similar breach. The stock declined by 17.6% and closed at $10.70, leaving the shares overvalued by exactly $10.70.
Full disclosure: short LifeTurd (LOCK) and not surprised at all by the breach
I don’t think it will go to zero but it probably should. It might over time. The product is basically a scam that does nothing, and they’ve been able to sell it with aggressive and deceptive marketing.
I’m disappointed by target, but I’ll probably still continue to buy 6 packs of deodorant and laundry detergent from them for the rest of my life, as bromion said. I’m an amazon prime user, and their pricepoint is significantly higher for these types of purchases. I also despise walmart.