The current phase of business cycle

CFA Level III
#1

I know this will not be tested in the exam, but I’m still curious. Where can I get the current economic condition, such as the current phase of business cycle? Or what’s the phase of business cycle in last year? No economic forecasting. Thanks.

#2

I mean which phase of business cycle we are in, 1) initial recovery 2) early expansion …, or still in 5) recession? Everyone may have a different view. Is there some consensus view published regularly?

#3

I think those categories are more academic then anything else.

#4

early expansion, in canada atleast

#5

I would agree that Canada is in an early expansion, the TSX has been on a tear lately due to commodity prices. I would still say that employment is still struggling out of the recession.

#6

i would think it is in expansion for north ameria. look at the metal indicies. they are at all time high. maybe indication of high expected demand?—>high demand=higher expected GDP?

#7

keep in mind that financial markets aren’t the only indicator of economic strength

#8

confidence is low unemployment is high markets are up from lows inflation is low stimulus from low interest rates still in effect GDP growth is low to moderate draw your own conclusions

#9

Thanks. Here is the US LEI from Conference Board(February 17, 2011): Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: “With January’s slight increase, following two large gains, the U.S. LEI is still pointing to economic expansion in the coming months. Falling housing permits and weakening labor market indicators were barely offset by the continued positive contributions of the financial components. The LEI remains on a rising trend, with its growth rate picking up in recent months. However, current economic conditions, as measured by the coincident economic index, while improving slowly, remain weak.” Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “The economy gained some momentum in late fall, and the latest data suggest that trend will continue. The cumulative change in the U.S. LEI over the last six months is a sharp 3.0 percent, signaling continued expansion.” --Forecasting with Economic Indicators for our exam: Advantages: 1, Available from outside parties 2, Easy to understand 3, Adaptable to specific purposes 4, Effectiveness has been verified by academic research. Disadvantages: 1, Inconsistent as economic relationships change over time. 2, Misleading forecasting from LEI.