The Psychology of Overconfidence

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2009/07/27/090727fa_fact_gladwell?currentPage=all Discuss. For some reason, the article says it was published July 27, 2009. Weird…

I think the date is a typo. What does everyone else thing?

I think it hasn’t been published yet, and the New Yorker website is a portal to the future. That or it’s the date the issue is supposed to be released. If nothing else, it’s a great look into the inner workings of a guy like Jimmy Cayne

i’m calling it. the greatest day of overconfidence in the history of mankind will lie on july 27th, 2009. short everything on this day.

“The psychologist Ellen Langer once had subjects engage in a betting game against either a self-assured, well-dressed opponent or a shy and badly dressed opponent (in Langer’s delightful phrasing, the “dapper” or the “schnook” condition), and she found that her subjects bet far more aggressively when they played against the schnook. They looked at their awkward opponent and thought, I’m better than he is. Yet the game was pure chance: all the players did was draw cards at random from a deck, and see who had the high hand. This is called the “illusion of control”:”

My freshman year of college there was a long-haired Dead-head in my dorm who acted like a doofus, dressed in psychedelic clothes, and did nothing but hang out with his gf and listen to the Grateful Dead all day whilst getting sh!tfaced. A bunch of us took the same chemistry class and prior to the first exam he kept saying he didn’t know anything, he was going to fail, blah blah blah. @sshole ends up knocking out a 94 on the thing, turns out he’s a frickin’ genius that studies his @ss off while locked in his room listening to music. He went on to graduate in the top 5% of our class and became a doctor. Go figure.

HAHAHA “The audacity of that prick in front of the American people announcing he was deciding whether or not a firm of this stature and this whatever was good enough to get a loan. Like he was the determining factor, and it’s like a flea on his back, floating down underneath the Golden Gate Bridge, getting a hard-on, saying, “Raise the bridge.” This guy thinks he’s got a big dick. He’s got nothing, except maybe a boyfriend.” I’m generally not a fan of homophobia, but that was hilarious.