There are always people that for some reason haven´t prepared enough for the exam and will fail because of that. Let´s pretend that number is 25 %.
So, out of 75 % that have given enough time and dedication, about 70 % will pass ( 52% / 75 % = 70 %).
There are also people who are well prepared that just have a bad exam day, get the wrong kind of questions or some other stuff that will make them fail. If you are not one of them and think that you did OK (just OK, not really great), then you can add a few more percentage points.
Personally, I studied quite hard, was well prepared, and my exam experience was OK. Even though I was really annoyed when I walked out of the exam room thinking that the exam was really tough for me, but I still didnt screw it up.
Right after the exam I thought that I had about 50 % chance of passing. But after doing this little analysis I think I have about 75-80 % chance to pass.
What do you guys think of the analysis? And how do you estimate your probability of passing?
I completely agree, although i think some of your numbers might be a little optimistic. I don’t think 25% of candidates enter level 3 unprepared. I’d wager 10-15 percent. But I think overall you are correct.
We’re gonna pass. If you think you did ok, you probably passed. I know I passed the afternoon with flying colors. God knows how they will grade the morning session, but they will grade it hard for everyone else too and the 52 percent pass rate means that they aren’t gonna just fail 90 percent of us for the hell of it.
You know its interesting, I dont think if i had put another 300 hours into this I would have done any better - maybe a question or two, thats it.
I felt some stuff I focused on getting down pat never was underrepresented, specifically the performance decomposition stuff. It’s stuff like that that worries me. I studied a lot but the test seemed to ignore my strenghts and focus on my weaknesses.
I actually think roughly 25% will come unprepared for the exam. I assume these are people who were about to change their mind on sitting for the exams, but were later convinced to show up if only for the experience. Some within the 25% may have “prepared well” but could have consistently scored around the borderline (62% - 64%) on the practice test and the mock exams. I assume they will do even poorly on the actual test.
We are then left with 75% really prepared candidates. Of the 75%, I assume that at least 15% screwed up on the test. This may be for time issue and or composure issue. We are then left with 60%. With 52% pass rate, there is 87% (52%/60%) chance for the remaining candidates to pass. These are candidates who prepared well by consistently scoring well above the borderline; and who did fairly well on the actual test. This failing 13% may have over rated their performance on the test or may have committed blunders based on the test format or altogether fail to fill in accurately their identification details.
What about the fact that Level III has the “essay” section? People all over the world take these exams, but it is only given in english. It’s one thing to read a non-native language (mult choice and item set text), but another to actually write it. So I wonder how much the language aspect is a serious disadvantage to many LIII candidates, and therefore, an advantage for native english speakers.
Sounds comforting. but i personally think 15 percent unprepared. 15 percent geniuses. 15 percent screw up. That leaves 35/55 for those who didnt. Sounds more realistic. Anyway, who defines a screw up? I was pressed for time and blasting through without thought. Sounds like a receipe for disaster.
I believe handwriting is another serious issue. How can people be sure that they’ll get fair correction if their handwriting sucks … It takes forever for someone to fix his handwriting (one he’s been used to throughout his life) and now he has to fix it just to write for three hours… Either finish the exam with a messed up handwriting OR barely finish 70% of the exam with a readable handwriting …
It’s 1 serious issue I have faced last year and I believe I will face this year too…
One more thing, 52% was last year’s passing rate however I believe this year’s gona be 48-49%. I found last year’s AM much easier than this year’s AM session.
My writing is terrible. People say I write like a Doctor but I actually write more like a little kid that is all hopped up on sugar at birthday party. It’s a mess and very juvenile.
It forced me to take hand written notes all year to get my handwriting in better shape for the exam. I think it helped me retain more knowledge and on practice exams I did a pretty good job. When it came to the exam I got behind fast and struggled to catch up, my writing suffered for it and hopefully it won’t cost me too many marks.
I took handwritten notes all year too. But how much will 1 year improve your handwriting in general when you’ve got 3 hours to finish a beast! You’re gona forget all about fancy handwriting and just ask your pen to “run like hell” …
These thinking is hopeful and helpful BEFORE THE RESULT.
But these also put salt in your wound if you fail and knowing that MOST PEOPLE PASS and you didn’t - and you only wonder why and how and what you could’ve done differently…
I disagree, at L1, nearly 1/4 don’t even show up on exam day, so that’s 25% of the population that isn’t prepared. I don’t think there’s another 25% that come unprepared. It’s probably like 10-15% of those that show up, are unprepared.
I think if you are struggling with handwriting you haven’t put enough pen to paper with practice exams. CFAI has handwriting experts along side the graders for that reason.
I have put enough pe nto paper with practice exams that’s why i finish on time however my handwriting sucks and im NOT blaming CFAI; I’m just saying that it’s a struggle to those with bad handwriting. You have to sacrifice either readable handwriting or finishing on time.
U know strange things do happen. I started of with my favourite blue pen which i had been practicing with. Somewhere on question 2 it suddenly popped. Spring came out. I was bewildered. I quickly switched to the spare which was an unused black pen with over zealous ink flow. We know a few illegible key words which are illegible can just screw u up. Im a believer of fate. After the exam i was wondering what was the odds of that happening. Just kept shaking my head…not to mention i was a bit stunned during the exam when the components of the pen scattered in front of me. Its like a punctured tyre and unscheduled pitstop. Team radio screaming box box box…for those who watch f1
I actually sat next to a guy that asked if the morning portion was essay format… I was honestly blown away.
He said that he took level 2 many years ago and finally got around to taking level 3, but didn’t get much studying done… So there ARE candidates out there that take level 3 without much preperation…
I think because we’re here in AF we tend to discuss amonst the members that put I’d say 100+% We are dealt with the assumption that almost everybody studies like us for this exam - but I guess not!
and im NOT blaming CFAI; I’m just saying that it’s a struggle to those with bad handwriting. You have to sacrifice either readable handwriting or finishing on time.