This years L2 pass rate?

CFA Level II
#1

Just for a little fun and perhaps distraction, what do we think this years pass rate might be on L2? 2009 = 41% 2008 = 46 2007 = 40 2006 = 48 2005 = 56 2004 = 32 Last summers L1 pass rate was 46% vs 32% for the Dec exam… Are we due a higher pass rate with candidates putting the effort into their studies or will CFA present us with a shocker of a paper?

#2

theL1 pass rate last summer was too high - they’ll probably be pretty tough this time around

#3

My guess, based on absolutely no evidence or rationale at all, is 45%

#4

I’m not liking my chances at the moment, that’s for sure

#5

I appreciate the comments ref last summer, but just by looking at the pass rates above, there almost looks to be some give and take adjustments to the pass rate based on the previous years level,agree 45% would make sense, but how do you shoot for that with any accuracy? Tough is all very well, consistency would make more sense as far as candidates are concerned.

#6

looks like there is negative serial correlation in the pass rates…

#7

44%, everyone who used AF since L1 will pass!! whoot whoot

#8

I have run a regression analysis and the pass mark will be between 34% and 39% (95% level of confidence). By 2025 the pass rate will be between -3% and 2% (95% level of confidence) The regression never lies.

#9

BobFishcake Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I have run a regression analysis and the pass mark > will be between 34% and 39% (95% level of > confidence). By 2025 the pass rate will be between > -3% and 2% (95% level of confidence) > > The regression never lies. What’s your R^2? Did you test for conditional heteroskedasticity or serial correlation? Did you take into account the exam format has changed from essay to multiple choice?

#10

It’s time series data, guys. AR(1) with seasonality

#11

BobFishcake Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I have run a regression analysis and the pass mark > will be between 34% and 39% (95% level of > confidence). By 2025 the pass rate will be between > -3% and 2% (95% level of confidence) > > The regression never lies. LOL!

#12

take a lag …remove seasonality and find ou urself…

#13

I’m going to venture a guess of <40%…38% to be precise.

#14

wait a minute guys, this would be an out-of-sample forecast. make sure your RMSE is the smallest.

#15

R^2 = RSS/TSS t = (slope - assumed slope)/SE F = MSR/MSE SEE = [SSE/(n-k-1)]^.5

#16

I think the data is negatively correlated. A high pass rate in one year means lower in the next one. So the data is serially correlated - Type II errors will occur. Anyways, as per my estimation pass rate will be less than 40%.

#17

I think we may need to run a monte carlo model using the following factors, testing first, of course, for significance. Here’s what we’re looking at: Y is the Pass rate of cfa level 2 exam X1 historical levels of stress measured quantitatively somehow X2 level of foreignness of the candidates (lower pass rates for non-english speaking) X3 average study hours of candidates X4 standard deviation of study hours of candidates X5 my mom

#18

I’m pretty sure that model would suffer from multicollinearity as “your mom” is correlated with all those independent variables. Oh snap!