"To Be Wrong With Infinite Precision"

This a particularly interesting section of Taleb’s book “The Black Swan.” Page 74, chaptet six, for those that have the paperback second edition lying around. Remind you of anybody on this forum? The comments on Nationality specifically…

I don’t have my book around, what’s the general topic discussed on that page?

Lucifer is wrong with infinite precision

Talks about how dopes fall back on Nationality to explain behavior. From the book, “Indeed, people tend to fool themselves with their self -narative of “national identity,” which…was shown to be total fiction. …Empirically, sex, social class, and profession seem to be better predictors of someone’s behavior than nationality…”

A great example why it’s best to gleen knoweldge from experience rather than some numbnut’s book. Spend time living in various parts of the world; the locals do what the locals do, because everyone else there does that. Environment largely determines behavior.

PA, I don’t purport to be some big shot, but I’m curious as to what fund type or strategy you work for. Maybe some people know you in real life, and if they do, I claim naïveté, but if they don’t, I mean, anybody can come in these forums and act like George F**king Soros without the ability to be called out because, you know, it’s an anonymous forum.

Investors of PA’s stature don’t concern themselves with “funds” or “strategy”.


PA’s comment becomes even more clownish given the numbnut promotes the empirical over the theoretical. The poor sap has no idea he has no clue. Neither do any of us, but some are at least aware of the shortcoming.

American investors hold 90% American stocks, Canadian investors strongly favor Canadian stocks, Chinese investors hold mostly A-shares. Clearly these decisions are not cold-logical analysis of the available opportunities, it’s “home-bias”.

So right there Numbnuts is quantifiably wrong; nationality largely determines investment behavior.

Well no, my investment skills CAN BE challenged. Years of time-stamped forecasts/picks. Betcha $100 I’m blowing away Numbnut’s YTD performance. He’s too busy writing up bullshit to beat the market.

Great. Please PM me with your track record and contact info. I am always interested in hiring managers with such an impressive, proven track record. I’ll have my due diligence team work on it right away if you are open to new investors.

Ooh, “years of time-stamped forecasts / picks.” It has been a while since I took L3, but is this the new language for GIPS compliant performance?

^ PA can’t be concerned with GIPS. For every minute allocating resources to GIPS compliance, he’s leaving millions on the table in uncaptured alpha. The only time he can afford to fritter away is 2-3 hours ranting, er, posting actionable trading advice on AF.

Don’t be stupid. The question was already answered; it’s a discussion forum and it is plain to see from posts who knows what they are doing. If the request is now “let’s see GIPS complient performance statements” then everyone submit their statements to Bchad who will check and post results (that means you too). I’m solid and fine with that. If not, then back down and zip it.

Same to you, ready to post results from a known broker? Let’s go.

And so Numbnuts was proven wrong by my post, you must feel pretty stupid right now right? Do you guys ever learn, or just keep shooting your own feet off into perpituity? LOL, you guys don’t even have any feet to shoot off anymore!

Ah, the penny drops. You are a “self-employed day trader.” No further questions.

And as for my time on AF, I’m hardly the most prolific poster. And I’m certainly not bragging about some phantom results here.

I was going to let it pass, but you’ve moved from clownish to moronic. You state all nationalites exhibit “home-bias.” You don’t even realize such a statement demonstrates that nationality doesn’t narrow down behavior much, further supporting numbnut’s point. Seriously, if you think you have the horsepower to compete with the likes of many on this board, you are sorely mistaken. I don’t always agree with a lot them, but it’s clear those such as, say, geo or BS have the horsepower. You clearly do not.


PA: No need for me to submit anything. My firm is already GIPS complient (sic) and verified by Ashland. How about you?

“Back down and zip it”? Clever.

Checking back on this thread, so all the talkers predictably weaseled out, okay.

Hey bud, the last time I checked you didn’t respond to my request…probably because you are full of shit.