# "66"

This frightens me. Let’s say the minimum passing score is 70%. A “lucky” person will correctly guess 1/3 of the unknown answers, so Let X = the number of questions a “lucky” person must knowingly answer correctly and still get 70% (84 out of 120) X + 1/3 (120 - X) = 84 2/3 X = 44 X = 66 Assuming a pass rate of 70%, 66 is the minimum number of questions we have to answer correctly if we’re “lucky.” Wouldn’t CFAI go out of its way to make it nearly impssible for someone to pass with a working knowledge of only 55% of the material? I think so. So there are two tools I can think of at its disposal: raise the minimum passing score, or make the questions much more difficult than they have in the past. I tend to believe the latter, and I think we’re going to have a much tougher time this year finding 66 questions that we can nail off the bat. I know, I should have been studying derivatives when I wrote this, but it’s been on my mind.

The good news is, if they make the exam harder, they probably would leave the way they determine minimum passing score unchanged. Why? Logically speaking, they would want to minimize the number of Band 10 Failed and Band 1 Passed. So as long as the mark distribution is relatively unchanged, they would continue determine the minimum passing score the same way as before (except that the curve would be shifted to the left due to the harder exam). I still believe the reason they changed the choices from 4 to 3 is based on efficiency reason (more efficient for grading and more exam friendly to the candidates).

The third distractor was chosen on 2% of the answers, which means that dropping it won’t have the impact you mention. If you needed 66% before to pass (approx) now you will need 68% (approx). The questions will be different that’s for sure, but I don’t think they will be somewhat harder.

I don’t buy the efficiency argument. Its a frigging scantron. The only way to increase efficiency is to teach the scanner to do more sheets per minute.

Not the scantron efficiency, but cost efficiency. Fewer machine hours + fewer exam papers to print. As a candidate, we read fewer as well. You achieve the same effect by putting in less work = more efficient.

Stop wasting time analyzing all the what ifs and step up the studying. We still have over 3 weeks! lets do this!