Traders - what market signs do you look at in the morning?

This question goes out to global macro type traders - what are the key indicators that you look at for the big picture. Of course, specialists will have your own areas of market focus. Throw it in here, it’s all good.

i look at my shares in NCX go up 300%.

My friend got laid off from Nova Chemicals. I was shorting the company through my investing game. Boy am I glad that I got out…

3m Libor, OIS, djx, spx, USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, VIX, TOP (news),

WOW! 348% premium offered by ADIC. This could work out very well a distressed play by Abu Dhabi in the long-term

Sorry I meant to write IPIC. Is the 6 dollar offering price in USD?

yeah man. i got in at $2.60. feelin pretty good about that one :wink: …although i felt pretty bad when it traded down to $1.29. something about it having a worldwide cost advantage and it being canada’s only plastics and chemical company led me to believe something like this would happen. although, i did not expect a jump to this magnitude.

still in the trade. the fact that it is trading over 10% off the bid price is astonishing. who thinks this won’t go through? everyone seems to be one board and i think shareholders will be glad to vote it in and get out without losing their entire wardrobe.

Varies according to where i have risk on, and what the market is focused on. at the moment, first things I look at are: - s&p futures overnight, gold, oil, eurusd, gbpusd, usdjpy, eastern european fx, front end us rates (eurodollar strip), 10yr bond future. the korean won has been a good sentiment gauge at times as well overnight.

I just picked up a few thousand shares

MattLikesAnalysis Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > yeah man. i got in at $2.60. feelin pretty good > about that one :wink: > > …although i felt pretty bad when it traded down > to $1.29. > > something about it having a worldwide cost > advantage and it being canada’s only plastics and > chemical company led me to believe something like > this would happen. although, i did not expect a > jump to this magnitude. You should go visit the plant one day in Joffre. It’s huge. Here’s to hoping to the Canadian government accepting the offer - the only risk I see in this not going through.

TheAliMan Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > MattLikesAnalysis Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > yeah man. i got in at $2.60. feelin pretty good > > about that one :wink: > > > > …although i felt pretty bad when it traded > down > > to $1.29. > > > > something about it having a worldwide cost > > advantage and it being canada’s only plastics > and > > chemical company led me to believe something > like > > this would happen. although, i did not expect a > > jump to this magnitude. > > > > You should go visit the plant one day in Joffre. > It’s huge. Here’s to hoping to the Canadian > government accepting the offer - the only risk I > see in this not going through. i see that as the only possibility, period. but it will be unable to survive on its own, so i don’t see how it is supposed to get out of this unless they get an equal or better offer from a canadian company. either way, it keeps jobs in canada and it will continue to run independently, thereby maintaining its canadian heritage. i dont’ see how the feds could deny this in a time when keeping the plants and employments numbers up and open is most important. i don’t see a 13% discount being justified when the company will bankrupt without help and they received that help. just ranting b/c i’m pissed this thing isn’t over $7 already.

Let’s list the pros and cons. Pros: 1.) 250 million credit facility offered by Abu Dhabi Investment Company so the company can continue to invest in its business 2.) Alberta Advantage (the cost advantage over US) should improve when oil prices rebound (which they will) 3.) No more breaking covenants or liquidity issues 4.) Offer is friendly, and management will be retained 5.) Alberta government doesn’t have to worry about the $100 million in financing Cons: 1.) The Canadian government might disallow the acquisition I’ve picked up a good size of shares now, but nothing close to my Kelly criterion bet. I’m figuring ~ 85% chance this goes through.

maybe i just don’t see it. BCE deal goes through and that deals with a sensitive issue, media. Nova won’t go through b/c we won’t have ownership of a chemical company? we will still have the factories/plants and thereby own the rights of production if we went to war or something so i don’t see any conflict here.

Taqa bought Primewest too. Lest we not forget. I love Abu Dhabi. I decided I am moving there to work for them. F’ investing with a few billion dollars, let’s invest with TRILLIONS :wink:

Also, I noticed you mentioned your cost basis at 2.60. I don’t know how much you bought, but if I was in your shoes, I would sell *some* shares to make some realized gains and leave 50-75% on the table. 12.5% upside is nice, but I wouldn’t get too greedy since there is still the risk of rejection existing shareholders who see longterm value 3-4 years from now if they can get some financing through AimCo and continue to renegotiate obligations (as proposed by the CEO). Regardless, you made a great return independent of the general market trend. I think this is how investing is supposed to be performed.

well on my radar, but thanks for a reminder as it is even possible for the best to be shrouded in greed from time to time. ps. not implying i am the best.

well on my radar, but thanks for a reminder as it is even possible for the best to be shrouded in greed from time to time. ps. not implying i am the best.

cokpmon index

fxguy1234 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > 3m Libor, OIS, djx, spx, USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, VIX, TOP (news), chicagofx Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Varies according to where i have risk on, and what > the market is focused on. at the moment, first > things I look at are: - s&p futures overnight, > gold, oil, eurusd, gbpusd, usdjpy, eastern > european fx, front end us rates (eurodollar > strip), 10yr bond future. the korean won has been > a good sentiment gauge at times as well overnight. Good stuff . This is what i’m after. chicagofx - didn’t know that about the KRW - what’s the rationale? Something along the line of a high end EM electronics manufacturer dependent on exporting reflects global trade concerns? Would make sense. Do you cover EE FX or are those ccys a generic proxy for risk aversion i.e. selection of emerging mkt currencies? Also, can you tell me what BB ticker you use for the front end US rates - I suspect you use a generic rate screen but just to be sure.