Triple SPY looking pretty good right 'bout meow

Seems Ohai knows his stuff.

more than 180% in 5 years time. I’m kind of upset I don’t just follow this strategy.

3x is a suboptimal strategy

5x or hacksaw


2x is optimal leverage. 3x will lose too much in downturn - but you can hold 50% bonds or something and rebalance in market dips.

wait a second. You’re telling me there’s a 5 times fund and I don’t know about it?

Some company was trying to launch a 4x leveraged ETF, but the SEC did not approve them. Therefore, 3x is the highest leverage you can achieve through unmargined ETFs. However, you can get 5x leverage or higher through futures if you want to.

if you cant play in the big leagues go with QLD

if you’re talking about me. The answer is, I can’t afford it.

Would you happen to have the research report handy (if public) that explains this? I tried to float this idea - drunkely - with a friend of mine. He wasn’t having it though, and while I may be able to handle the rejection of myself just fine, him rebuffing YOU is something I’m willing to make a complete ass out of myself to defend.

I’m mulling over flipping half my spy’s (sitting in an IRA, so no tax) to 2x if the market drops say 25% from peak (almost happened in December) and the other half if the market drops 50%. Unwind when prior high achieved. Thoughts?

Works unless not v-shaped recovery. Also buy CSI300 to hedge!

No point in trying to time the market. Just do it now

Hell nah haha

I could make it valuation based, when P/E hits X, really wouldn’t make a difference.

Looking back, I should have done it before the election. I was nearly all in before because I knew Trump would win and the markets would improve, but I didn’t use any leveraged instruments, oh well.

you cant afford what?

Why would you time your 2x exposure and not your 3x? Sounds like a behavioral bias to me

And 3x is sometimes optimal, just not frequently as so as 2x.

I guess trying to remove supposed behavior bias and making the investment thesis more robust, I could calc the normalized p/e of the S&P 500. Say it’s 18x. If the multiple hits 9x, use double levered to buy into the market at an equiv of 18x w/ more vol of course. If market falls by 2/3, use 3x. If it falls beyond, buy calls with any spare cash, if I’m still employed. Hope the market normalized towards the avg at some point and unwind.

hpr its an excellent way to go about it. but unlike ohai, i dont think you can be permanently invested in these products. there isnt that much data on them, the largest ones were only recently created between around 2006 to 2008. anyways during the last market downturn S&P fell 55%, while the 2x levered product fell 85%. a similar crash right now would make you regret ever purchasing a levered etf. but then again an over 50% downturn is pretty rare. of 150 years of data there was only maybe 17 bear markets. of that 17 there was only 2 or 3 major downturns that had a 50% downside.

some market stats from peter lynch:

The markets had a 10 or 11 percent return, compounded over the last 40 or 50 years, let’s say. But the returns are quite volatile, inter-year. For example, there have been 95 years so far this century. Fifty times, the market has had a decline of 10 percent or more. This does not mean 50 “down” years – the market might have been up 26 percent at one point in the year, finished up 4 percent for the year, and had a correction in the middle. So in 50 declines in 95 years means that about once every 2 years, the market has a 10 percent correction…That’s going to get your attention, and it’s probably going to scare a lot of people.

Of the 50 declines of 10 percent or more this century, 15 have been a decline of 25 percent or more. Fifteen declines in 95 years is about once every 6 years…That certainly will get your attention. I haven’t seen much in human nature that’s changed in the last 400 years, so there will be these corrections every 2 to 6 years. And what are you going to do when that happens! If you’re prepared for it, you don’t panic.

Aren’t you early/mid 20’s?