GDP another surprise 4.1% Q3. It’s rare for the final number to be revised so much on a non-election year, or any quarter in general.With that said, what do you guys think of the employment situation for the first half of next year?
Would companies rather ‘overshoot’ and hire more, or are we truly stabilizing at a new normal unemployment level?
Companies hiring employees is like retail investors trading stocks.
They will overhire (greedy) when times are good and overfire (fear) when times are bad. It’s part of the cycle.
There’s no way companies will overshoot hiring in a non boom phase.
Within finance, 2014 is set to be a much better year than 2013 (not that 2013 was any bad compared to the past 4 years). Investment banks across the board are increasing planned junior hires for next year, JPM is set to have the biggest analyst class since 2007. Within hedge funds / mutual funds, this year we’ve seen the focus on adding high yield / fixed income jobs to catch up with the institutional demand. With the strong S&P’s performance this year and Europe rebounding, I think we’ll see a shift to equities in 2014 withing assetment management recruiting.
My company hasn’t explicitly said this, but I can read between the lines… management comments imply that hiring in 2014 will be limited to essential hires and replacement of staff who leave. We added probably 10% in total headcount in 2013 so headcount/payroll growth next year will be down significantly. But that’s one private company’s opinion…