^ Maybe I’m a bad person, but any Clinton health issues (real or imagined) are awesome for my massive US short position. Let’s keep the theorizing coming!
In this case short earth.
Well, the average Joe might not understand his tax returns, but tax accountants would, and they would easily spin mundane items (like the use of S-Corporations and IRA deductions) into horrific stories about how he is “using loopholes not available to the middle class to avoid paying his fair share”.
Whether it’s true or not doesn’t matter. When somebody writes something like that, you have to play damage control. Better to just not release the tax returns in the first place.
(For the record - I don’t know why candidates have a de-facto requirement to release their tax returns. I have no problem with him not releasing his tax returns. Tax returns are private. Certain other documents, such as birth certificates or military records *COUGH!!!* are not.)
The tax returns would have to be REALLY bad to hurt Trump in any significant way. I mean, they will have to be “selling human body parts” kind of bad. So much bad stuff has been published about Trump, and no one cares. Everyone knows that he has been less than ethical in some of his business dealings. 85% of people have an unfavorable view of him. However, this seems to only reinforce his brand.
I hate to break it to you, but a downturn in the US is going to bring down all world assets with it. Other countries will potentially go down even more… Look at how MSCI emerging markets index responds to Fed action.
This is why the tax issue is a win win for Hillary. He releases she wins, he doesnt she wins. As to whats really going on with his returns who knows but as you said its all about image.
As far as why its a de-facto requirement? Who knows, people feel someone running for public office should be more open and have their affairs disclosed to the public. Its similar to how everyone is digging for Hillary’s health records, the public feels they deserve to know the highest elected officials private matters. Hard to say whats right or wrong. Maybe your last 5-10 years of tax returns and health checkup info should be mandatory, maybe not. Its politics its all spin, Trump will downplay his taxes and drum up Hillary’s health. Hillary will downplay her heath & talk about Trumps taxes.
Golly really? I’m, 100% long undervalued world, 200% short overvalued America. I win in a downturn, because net short, and because better country picking than some crappy "emerging markets’’ index. Heck, even this little downturn since Friday has sent me up up and away…more fear please.
Hillary is sick, Trump is the next Hitler, global recession, central banks have nothing more to ease, aged bull market with massively inflated prices. Let’s go bears!
Really? What are the specific countries that you have chosen, and what is the exact position that you have put on? Welcome back to the Americas, by the way. I am glad that you hate it so much here that you have chosen to come back. Also, good luck in waiting in meetings for people who don’t value your time. For the record, I haven’t had a single work meeting this year where a vast majority was not punctual. That is the normal situation when people actually like you and respect your schedule.
Edit: Was typing something 2-3 times as long, but then I decided it’s not worth it. It’s too easy.
I, too, would like to know the specifics of this trade. Considering the beta of international and EM indexes to the S&P is >1.0 and correlations approach 1 in times of crisis, you must be very confident in your ability to pick “undervalued” countries/securities. (Btw, you should really get with the game and start saying “high quality” then you’ll really sound like you know what you’re talking about.)
IIRC, the last time you threw out a specific trade in the Investments forum you got monkey-hammered and disappeared for several months.
^Do you know where he went to rehab? I know it was for gambling, but what clinic specifically?
We’ve already talked about this a million times guys, as have we about the ADHD/forgetfulness, use search function.
Yesterday’s IBRK report (YTD): PA 18.45% , WORLD 4.92%, SPX 5.71%.
Yes.
What are the trades that you have on right now? We’ll bookmark this 9/14/2016 snap shot and measure the exact performance a year from now.
For the record: ohai: +25.65%. Winning! My cat: +27.54%. He is addicted to Fancy Feast but is an investing genius. We talked about this, remember? Go search for it.
Yawn, why would this time be different? We already talked, you guys forget, you’ll forget this too…guaranteed.
Long A-shares in the '15 crash, long HK and Brazil in early '16 rate panic, long various smaller positions around the world, long UK preferreds in the Brexit dip. Those have already bounced and thrown off massive dividends (pay 6-8% where I bought them). Then 200% short SPX when over 2100 during Summer, sell short-dated covered puts waiting for Q4 Trump/Yellen volatility. Bam there’s my 18.5%, already won, now defensive.
Forward I win in most scenarios (although there is no reason why I must stay this way for a year). The most probable scenario is vol in Q4, I close out most shorts, go long whatever becomes cheap/good. But in yr8 bull obviously keep some hedges in place (2018 puts).
Brilliant. Why is this hard to understand? You knuckleheads always say the same textbook stuff (I have a good memory) “but correlation is almost 1, and EM will fall more than DM, and bla bla what we were brainwashed to say, which is why we are underperforming”. 
What are your exact positions now? You did not answer the question. I can make up any stuff too with historical data. Except my cat. That guy is legit.
What A Shares did you buy? It does not seem like these shares have recovered from the 2015 crash. Not by a lot.
Since everyone knows, it’s not even worth calling this information fraudulent. I’ll just exit this conversation know knowing that I have won. Good luck in your new country, where you hate everyone. Lolol buwahaha muahahaa.
Huh? I just said. Various holdings at those times and countries. I don’t really play individual names, I do countries/timing. S&P500, CSI300, IBOV, etc.
Here on the internet, you can’t call it any better than calling it before it happens with time stamped posts, that happened (past tense), sorry you CFA guys suck at markets. But some people don’t. Follow this strategy going forward, mostly probable scenario is I’ll win again, and you’ll forgot this convo too. 
its easy to say what you’ve invested in, it’s hard to admit your sizing. for all we know, 10% of his portfolio is in those successful strategies while the rest is in a 2x Short VIX ETF, which he doesn’t talk about.
pa, we’ve been over this. my returns will always be better because i don’t use equity. since my investing career began, i am up infinity percent. further, i have achieved returns of infinity percent every year since 2008, except 2010, when my return was negative infinity, but admittedly, it was a small negative infinity.
We’ve already talked about that, I use concentration, think 5 big global positions at 20%, then 200% short SPX.
Why would it be hard to “admit”, I post what I’m doing constantly. I notice you guys are very quiet. I assume cause you know you suck, and it will be embarrassing. Am I right?
pa you changed from canadia to usa, what gives
Yeah, I change countries all the time. Soon it will be a different country, this seems to confuse you guys. Did you know, there is this thing called the airplane…
haha this was quite good