So I guess that in light of the “stronger than expected” GDP report, it’s basically 25 basis points if that? Willy
GDP rear view mirror. Every release is important in its own way, but dont think this will have a ton of sway outside moving the marginal voter. It was 25 bp before the print. But, i thought it was 25 bp last round too, so what do i know?
My predictuion is the the hysterical media will attempt to portray GDP growth of 3.9% as further evidence of stagnation
I think the concern is not that 3.9% isn’t a respectable rate of growth, but that there is an increasing disconnect between the performance of the economy and the well-being of the US middle class. America may be doing well… americans… less so.
bchadwick, read an interesting article about that recently, basicall the thesis is that the income discontect has occured b/c: Educated men want to be with educated women and vice versa. This leads to phenomenon where you have an increasing # of househods with dual proffessional “white collar” income. The benefits of having a high income spouse are beign concerntrated like never before. e.g. Two friends of mine in late 20’s both with Masters: wife high school teacher (65K) husband finance (150K) People I met at highschool reuionlate 20’s, both high school + 1 -2 yr post secondary husband, medic (50K) wife, works at pulp mill (55K) just a thought…
CCM Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > bchadwick, > > read an interesting article about that recently, > basicall the thesis is that the income discontect > has occured b/c: > > Educated men want to be with educated women and > vice versa. This leads to phenomenon where you > have an increasing # of househods with dual > proffessional “white collar” income. The benefits > of having a high income spouse are beign > concerntrated like never before. > > e.g. > > Two friends of mine in late 20’s both with > Masters: wife high school teacher (65K) husband > finance (150K) > > People I met at highschool reuionlate 20’s, both > high school + 1 -2 yr post secondary > > husband, medic (50K) wife, works at pulp mill > (55K) > > just a thought… i studied sociology in undergrad and that actually is not a new trend. Individuals are most likely to marry within your own social-economic group and the empirical data suggests thats its been like this for a very long time. Professionals marry professionals its rare to see a lawyer marry a janitor. the real shift is that due to technological change and the outsourcing of lower skilled jobs particularly in the manufacturing sector there is a premium put on education and talent, particularly talent that can readily move between job sectors. this also means tyhat the return to capital has increased while the return to labour has stayed pretty much the same. the consequence is that pace of income growth for the professional classes have outpaced those of unskilled and marginaly skilled workers. the best thing governments can do is improve the access to higher education and skilled training programs, this is something thats highly long term and structura,l a change in fiscal or monetary policy isn’t going to do much to change it.
I agree that education and (re-)training are key parts of a successful policy to address the gap. However, I fear we are being unrealistic about the hopes we pin on it. What if education turns out not to be enough? Is there any other policy solution out there?
bchadwick Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I agree that education and (re-)training are key > parts of a successful policy to address the gap. > However, I fear we are being unrealistic about the > hopes we pin on it. What if education turns out > not to be enough? Is there any other policy > solution out there? i think its probably the best without unintentionaly creating negative externalities. we we try and regulate the problem away there will be definitely be unintented consequences. I’ve always favoured a bit of income redistribution similar to what exists in Canada, only administrated better, theres alot of wasteful spending on the part of government and we dont seem to get returns that justify it. i think as along as we maintain as much as possible the equality of oportunity(or the perception that it exists) we’ll be fine, but there will never be a system that is completely perfect.
bchadwick, I believe that I did not express my self completely… peopel have always generally “married” within there socio economic class. The point I was tryign to convey from the article is that it is becoming much more extream and with a large number of women completeing university that the consequences are that you have a group of proffessional families that have significant income. This income advantage opens up a large gap between the middle middle and upper middle class which did not exist when families would have one bread winner. The life stlye gap between familes bringing 200K plus and familes brignin in 100K is bigger than the gap that exists when you only have a single breadwinner. We are switchign from an industrial economy to an information economy and like all trasition pain is involved and those whose skills are not adaptable get left behind…creative destruction is a b*itch!
I agree with you and don’t have any issues there. I also think that education is pretty important. I just have a nagging suspicion that education isn’t going to be enough to solve the income gap in general, and I think too many people and politicians say “we’ll throw money at education, that’ll take care of it… Next issue, please.” I don’t have a better solution right now, but I think we need to be looking for one.
I feel like I just sat through a John Edwards campaign stump speech after reading this thread.