I’m going to echo GS’s BUY on those today. Put me in as a strong buy as well on those, 1 year holding period. Add that to my outstanding ERJ rec.

I like how you are trying to bring us more active conversations, after oil died down. Who is going to create the black swan ETF?

Also throw Severstal and MON on there as well. Now I’ve got them all out there.

Your ERJ rec has done really well! These picks are very interesting!

these picks are tanking and im going after BS with a pitchfork.

Lol, you’re still in the green at $22.50 on ERJ even though I rec’d it just below $20. I would honestly buy these picks all day at these levels. Nice thing is you’re getting a 4.1% dividend yield on CF at these levels, they can’t take that away from you. Didn’t’ figure you were the type to let a little beta scare you on 1 and 4 year holding periods.

I hope all these picks go well, but I am interested to see how black swan handles being wrong if something changes. I am personally curious if the water cooler black swan is different from investment thesis black swan

That’s fair. I’m historically pretty bearish so I’ve had to deal more with false negatives than false positives over the past few years covering these names (in other words I’ve missed a few recoveries but haven’t taken any real big downside hits). I’m usually pretty quick to pull the ripcord if I think the fundamentals have shifted.

Honestly, with CF being the world’s lowest cost producer in a net import market and with all CAPEX behind them (same for UAN which is the MLP version of CF) it would be pretty hard for me to imagine this not being a strong value name in a years’ time with maybe some speed bumps in between.

ERJ is a similar story carrying volatility of being recognized as a Brazilian firm, but with predominantly all sales and a large component of manufacturing in the US / USD. They have more than half of the global market and are in the very late stages (read de-risked) of development on their next platform, everything on budget and on schedule. So again, it would be hard for me to really see the fundamentals shifting away from me on that name over a four year period given multi-year backlogs in place.

MON is just merger arb, if the Dow/DuPont deal fell apart or Syngenta/ChemChina (should know by mid April), then obviously I’d begin abandoning that position.

Severstal is an ultra low cost steel producer predominantly feeding the domestic Russian market with a very conservative balance sheet. With global steel prices supportive, I’d need either a major drop in steel prices or signs of renewed weakness in Russia to walk away from that one, although that’s a smaller position right now.

I’d probably build the Severstal and UAN/CF positions more in April when I roll out of the MON position (currently the largest).