A little uptick!
Goldman estimated the other day something in the ballpark of 2.5million and that was seen as too high.
yea the estimates ranged from 600k to 4m. i remember when i saw that and compared it to 2008, ok they need to stop the panic and get these people back to work.
Any ideas why the stocks are surging? spy and DJIA up 4%. Were the jobless claims data better than expected (?) or are we pricing in new stimulus because of the shitty numbers?
the jobless claims were bad. real bad. pretty close to the upper band. but the stimulus is big. real big.
its a bit funny though. consider a 2 trillion package. lets say gdp contracts by 10% for the year, using the range from -6 to like -15%. on a 20 trillion economy. thats about 2 trillion. imo its the perfect amount given current estimates. the question is will demand and everything be back to normal in a year. imo, i think yes. i think it’ll be sooner. they just need to keep everything afloat. so that credit markets dont blow up. and credit markets have widended significantly the past month/week. it looked like it was going to come close to 2008 status in the last few days. but since stimulus was announced with a pledge to help corporate debt by both fed and treasury, its neither tightening nor widening as of now. too early to tell. but i woulda thought the news would have tightened by a noticeable amount.
in anyh case, errybody drawing down on their revolvers.
1 Like
The entire investment community knew that number would suck. It’s old news.
Well duh. But there’s a difference between 2mio and 3.25mio claims. But both suck.
If the data release was old news before being released, what moved the market today? 4% uptick in US isn’t just random volatility when the rest of the world doesn’t see a similar surge.
from a company’s perspective. what is a better move. laying people off or cutting hours or furloughs.
I hope you’re right. Today one of the aggregate bond funds that I’d allocated in my clients’ portfolios is now closed due to the panic selling. This fund was holding mostly in corporate bonds (HSBC holding & Emirates NBD).
i dont know anything international but from what i read. everyone is supposedly flooding the usd for safety even though the us is just running deficits and keeping rates low. its almost funny. like we are doing a lot to weaken our currency, yet demand for it still goes hard. and i think the us will prolly just support us credit markets. we got our own problems. its really sad for the emerging markets. they got noweher to turn and their debt is dollar denominated.
thanks obama
1 Like
Def agree with you. However, global bond mkt is too fragile. An inevitable sell-off, when everyone is unloading. Most funds are holding the same bonds.
there are a ton of people who lost their jobs. and i cant beleive there are still people complianing about how their work requires them to do their job in order to get paid. its revolting how ungrateful some people can be.
I can’t imagine being a low-wage worker being paid by the hour. I would* be in a full-mode panic. Especially in the US. No work…no pay-check. Exit the premises and go ■■■■yourself.
The USD is a safe haven because of the liquidity.
Even when we’re federally broke, and have zero rate policy.
Think of if we ran a current account surplus!! And had 5% ten year yields… one dollar could buy 20 euros.
I wonder if mail order Russian brides are cheaper!
Pretty sure liquidity is not the reason the USD is a safe haven…
Fiat currency is all based on trust and they trust us. The poor idiots.
Absolutely it is.
