Hi guys, I know of a few strong value guys here and just thought I gather as many ppl as possible for my added list of value dudes/babes. I think a few of the guys on here can attest to the fact I won’t reveal your email to anybody. If you could please leave a email so I can add you, that would be great. practicing value investors only.
Sorry for my ignorance, but how do I send you a private message? Value goes a long way! FrankArabia Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Hi guys, > > I know of a few strong value guys here and just > thought I gather as many ppl as possible for my > added list of value dudes/babes. > > I think a few of the guys on here can attest to > the fact I won’t reveal your email to anybody. > > If you could please leave a email so I can add > you, that would be great. > > practicing value investors only.
Please send to me at tangask at gmail
FrankArabia - I give you permission to share my e-mail with Achilles.
I wonder if someone could setup a message board to just discuss value ideas. I’m not sure how hard this would be, but seems like it would be worthwhile based on the interest here recently.
email sent, i agree with the idea of a new value investing message board.
pgh.ndt Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I wonder if someone could setup a message board to > just discuss value ideas. I’m not sure how hard > this would be, but seems like it would be > worthwhile based on the interest here recently. That’s easy, start a new thread, put some stock symbols in it, and let it simmer for two or three years, then bump it. Good luck to the AF value team.
there are a few value investing blogs already and a quick google search will show that. I was hoping to grab a group of ppl together and start working with them here and there. aliman, matt, value addict and I have spoken a few times and I think we can take it to the next level time permitting. In some cases, more heads is not better than 1 but i think we can learn from each other and use our time a bit more productively.
Feel free to toss me into your list as well. As for blogs etc, I’m well aware, I’m looking for more of a discussion forum, maybe emailing around will be fine. Blogs center the discussion on what the author decides to write about, I’d like something open ended.
OK, I guess I will start… PNCL (Q) Pabrai had this stock in his portfolio in 2007 at around $20.00. Obviously he still believes in it. He added a ton more in 2008 when it went down to about $1.75. Now, this is what I call a good pick. Now, how would you compare that stock to this one: RJET (Q) Open for discussion… By the way, calling yourself a “value investor” is pretty cool these days!!
It’s going to $40. Just wait for it. Remember that value is about the long-term ( sometimes the very long-term). If you’re looking at making money within the next 5 years, look somewhere else.
Which blogs do you guys like to read for value investing-related info (as opposed to general market updates like abnormal returns or big picture)?
supersunny138 at gmail . com Check CCME … IT Earns Buffets ROE and Has Joel Greenblatt’s Earnings Yield 
What’s the appeal of Pinnacle airlines? It looks to me to be a small, highly-geared airline. Almost the exact opposite of what I would usually class as a value stock. Not that you couldn’t try to play it as a cyclical recovery stock for the next couple of years, but long-term value? Am I missing something? Also I see CCME as delisted on Bloomberg or am I looking at the wrong ticker? Anybody got an opinion on the oil servicing companies right now? Offshore drillers like NE and ESV showing single digit P/Es with double-digit ROEs with net cash on the balance sheet. I don’t know the sector well but it seems to me that maybe they have some long-term contracts agreed in 07-08 rolling off soon and new rates will be a lot lower.
I tried to look a bit into the Oil servicers. However, i am not knowledegeable on this sector at all. Smith looked ok and so does Schlumberger. Neither however is “cheap” by my measures. You can’t take the P/E at face value and the ROE needs to be adjusted. After adjustments, their returns are not “spectacular” in my view. I also looked at CCME. I have one question, how do you expect the company to generate revenue in the next 5 years? to me, that is still a bit of a mystery. I’m looking at recurring revenue so future expectations of merger or acquisitions related revenue does not count for me.
What are you adjusting ROE for? I’d have thought it would be to strip out the effect of leverage, but in a company with net cash wouldn’t that actually enhance the ROE?
Agree with oil services, but my knowledge in this space is also limited. SLB isn’t necessarily cheap though. Also consider me interested in the value chat. I will email you FrankArabia. I would also be interested in the listing of some value blogs. http://www.grahaminvestor.com/ www.moderngraham.com Those above are a start but more of a screener and less of a blog that has open discussion. There is some decent value material at http://valueinvestingfundamentals.blogspot.com/ but again, no real open discussion. I look forward to hashing out some ideas with all of you.
FrankArabia CCME is comepting with some names like FMCN, VISN, AMCN. CCME currently is doing advertising services with busess and other names advertise on airlines to subways. It has consistently earned good return on capital you can check their previous presentations. They got 100 mill in cash, out of which 30mill from Star international of Hank Greenberg the former AIG CEO (I don’t think he has much room left for mistakes). Books also seem clean and are also audited by one of the big four Deloitte Touche. CEO-Founder owns majority of shares. As for long term the company has longer term contracts running uptill 4-8 years with multinational brands like samsung and coca cola.ON average they earn around 2000 USD per buss and their projected buss increase in this year is around 9000 which totals to 30,000 busess by the end of 2010. The guidence for 2010 is 71-75 mill in Net Income which excludes any new busses so if CCME reaches its goal for 30,000 busses that will bring additional 18 Million in Net income to the guidence. (Assuming the margins will stay the same at around 43%). The if chinese Yuan appreciates against dollar that will also increase the profits in Dollar terms as CCME aint an exporter. The only thing I can predict that by looking at past I know the management did a good job in finding lucrative projects and earning good on capital. With no specific competitor (In busses) I think CCME will grow. These margins can be questionable in longer terms. They have got good cash so share I don’t think we will expect any share issue in sometime so no expected shareholder dilution. I think for holding period of next 3 years CCME seems a good investment. Though I can be potentially wrong at any of this.
Quick question on P/E ratios: the ‘E’ only gets updated on a quarterly basis. I’m assuming you use trailing. When the latest numbers come out, does it ever throw your models out the window? Do your models update on the day of the earnings release? What tools are you using for that - online trading accounts or websites with financial data?
supersunny138 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > FrankArabia CCME is comepting with some names like > FMCN, VISN, AMCN. CCME currently is doing > advertising services with busess and other names > advertise on airlines to subways. It has > consistently earned good return on capital you can > check their previous presentations. They got 100 > mill in cash, out of which 30mill from Star > international of Hank Greenberg the former AIG CEO > (I don’t think he has much room left for > mistakes). > > Books also seem clean and are also audited by one > of the big four Deloitte Touche. > CEO-Founder owns majority of shares. > > As for long term the company has longer term > contracts running uptill 4-8 years with > multinational brands like samsung and coca cola.ON > average they earn around 2000 USD per buss and > their projected buss increase in this year is > around 9000 which totals to 30,000 busess by the > end of 2010. The guidence for 2010 is 71-75 mill > in Net Income which excludes any new busses so if > CCME reaches its goal for 30,000 busses that will > bring additional 18 Million in Net income to the > guidence. (Assuming the margins will stay the same > at around 43%). The if chinese Yuan appreciates > against dollar that will also increase the profits > in Dollar terms as CCME aint an exporter. > > The only thing I can predict that by looking at > past I know the management did a good job in > finding lucrative projects and earning good on > capital. With no specific competitor (In busses) I > think CCME will grow. These margins can be > questionable in longer terms. They have got good > cash so share I don’t think we will expect any > share issue in sometime so no expected shareholder > dilution. > I think for holding period of next 3 years CCME > seems a good investment. > > Though I can be potentially wrong at any of this. Hi there, so you aroused my interest in this so I quickly skimmed their 10K. Just wondering how you got some of the information. You mentioned they had long term contracts with advertisers. I saw 80% agency derived revenue, with most being 1yr long. Agencies apparently are the ones that bring them the clients so their direct involvement is slightly limited. Agencies can walk adn they have specified that as a risk. That’s not to say that they’re unsustainable, but its a lot different than saying coke has a 8 year contract with the company. Also, what if the inter buses decide to go with another competitor? they have also stated that they have LT contracts with the buses, but not the third party operators who employ the buses. problably over looking into it, but just trying to see all the holes. also, how did you get the figure for cost of advertisement? I must have missed it as I just skimmed the annual report. please feel free to email me at tangask at gmail so we can go through this in a bit more detail. I also had trouble finding the “presentation” but from what I googled and saw on the message board, this existed. I was only able to locate the 10-k. thanks