For the right answer in VAR question we have: “Based on the historical simulation method, by definition the VAR at the 95% confidence level would be the least amount of loss over the 5 worst trading days out of 100. Based on Exhibit 1, the amount is -$5,000,000” I thought at 95% confidence level the loss will be no more than $5 000 000. Do you agree ? (If we have such question in essay part wording is important.)
Yes. Both statements are saing the same thing: There is a 95% chance that the loss will not exceed $5M. There is a 5% chance that the loss will exceed $5M.