If you were tasked with the project of assessing the economic growth of several major cities, what are the key variables and metrics you would look at? Which do you think are the best proxies? (GDP, unemployment rates/levels, etc.)
New Building Permits and Housing?
population growth proportion of population with college education population demographics (i.e. if lots of young people, more potential for growth in GDP)
^agree pop growth is a big one. industry mix is another. what overall industries are positioned for growth, which cities have an industry mix that will benefit from that growth. historical example: houston and oklahoma city did very well during the oil run up. Charlotte benefited from the financial services boom. …also relative competitiveness: cost of living, cost to do business, amenities. Economy.com has some pretty good metro-level reports, Precis Metro I think they’re called. PPR & TWR also forecast metros but with a commercial real estate focus.
Yeah, I’m basically just looking for some industry metrics that are free to access, and also easy to compute or retrieve. I’m looking for some real high-level data; nothing too complicated or detailed.
Yeah, I’m basically just looking for some industry metrics that are free to access, and also easy to compute or retrieve. I’m looking for some real high-level data; nothing too complicated or detailed.
Check sectary of state’s websit for new business registration, incorporation application.
can you tell me why how you can assess economy bu population growth?
^people living in places buy things in those places.
I’m just looking for which cities have “growth potential” from a broad perspective, so I just want a broad indicator of the economic growth for several cities. I am NOT looking for something too complicated or esoteric. This is a broad data point that I’m looking for just so I can say something in a brief industry write-up, so please keep this in mind when you’re providing your suggestions.
jbaldyga Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > ^people living in places buy thing in those > places. i dont buy this. pop growth could be due to no education where poor people procreate without family planning. also, a city like orlando will have a large influx of people but lacka economic growth.
If you have a list of say 10-20 metros, go to economy.com and buy their ‘GDP’ forecast for each metro. Cost is about $25 per metro I believe. These forecasts will bake all the relevent factors into one metric. Economy.com generally pretty decent.
I think you have this question every 6 months, numizzle
needhelp Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > jbaldyga Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > ^people living in places buy thing in those > > places. > > i dont buy this. pop growth could be due to no > education where poor people procreate without > family planning. also, a city like orlando will > have a large influx of people but lacka economic > growth. ok I agree it’s not the end all. You have to be attracting talented, productive people. Maybe net migration gets a little more to the heart of it. But there’s no denying that you can get a reliable, rough idea of a direction of a metro by looking at population growth. Compare the rust belt to the south and coasts…
Hi all - thanks for the recommendations. Good suggestion on Economy.com – there is a good sample report for Precis, which is the metro overview that jbaldyga referred to. Check it out here: http://www.economy.com/store/download_sample_getfile.asp?f=NY_NewYorkCity.pdf&id=19 In reading this report, they look at a variety of indicators in order to come up with an assessment of projected employment growth. Key indicators they look at for economic performance include: - Gross metro product - Unemployment levels and rates - Personal income growth - Population growth - Building permits - Existing home price - Mortgage originations - Net migration - Personal bankruptcies Anyway, thanks for the tips guys. I hope this summary is helpful in case anyone else ends up needing to find similar research on this. FYI, in case anyone is interested in why I need this data, it’s because I spend a fair bit of time looking at potential expansion markets for our portfolio companies, and the more data we can collect on a local market, the better.
jbaldyga Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > needhelp Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > jbaldyga Wrote: > > > -------------------------------------------------- > > > ----- > > > ^people living in places buy thing in those > > > places. > > > > i dont buy this. pop growth could be due to no > > education where poor people procreate without > > family planning. also, a city like orlando will > > have a large influx of people but lacka > economic > > growth. > > > ok I agree it’s not the end all. You have to be > attracting talented, productive people. Maybe net > migration gets a little more to the heart of it. > But there’s no denying that you can get a > reliable, rough idea of a direction of a metro by > looking at population growth. > > Compare the rust belt to the south and coasts… this would be interesting. look for communities with high population growth but low birth rates. i think that would encompass both the level of education in that population and signal growing jobs numbers in ‘smart industries’.
I have a databuffet subscription if you need a quick lookup.
^violation!! j/k
juventurd Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I have a databuffet subscription if you need a > quick lookup. any idea what your company is paying for this service? I signed up my company in March and would be interested to know if we’re overpaying. We get the historical U.S. & metros DB.
nobel prize winners per capita starbucks per capita (of course, lower is better)