volatility trading

is tough. VIX futures/options that is. i got the timing of VIX peaks near perfect, and yet somehow managed to lose money in VIX futures. really, 1. shame on me for being so freakin’ stupid its an embarassment and 2. lesson learned, and i’ll be making money on this sucker next time. anyone who’s a player in this class have any tips on what the trick is?

Did you always trade the nearest contract?

My trick is to not play them. You’ve got to remember that what you’re betting on is not volatility, but what 30-day forward volatility expectations will be at some point in the future. Because of the volatility of volatility, today’s vol expectations (ie, spot VIX) are only marginally relevant in predicting that number. If you’re a serious vol trader you’re trading OTC variance swaps, not messing around with these toys.

i sold further down the futures chain. stupid, stupid, stupid. [slaps himself]