Was Meredith Whitman too early with her call?

she famously called in dec 2010 that there will be billions upon billions of muni defaults in the next 12 months.

obviously it didnt happen. but was she too early with her call?


Illinois is about to be downgraded to junk status.

[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sFc563u2q74 autoplay:0]

p.s. wish the local muni pro ihihm would show up here even shirtless is fine

Yes but being early is the same as being wrong.

I wouldn’t say it that way. But, yes if you put money on it to buy/short at the wrong time you lose the money.

Anything has a probability of 100% over a long period of time though. I’m pretty sure AAPL will not exist at some point. But is this in the next 5 years… 10 years… 100 years…

This the context in which she made her statements. These are slow moving disasters IMO

Have you never heard the quote “successful investing is having everyone agree with you… later.”?

I never heard it, nor of her.

Calling the USG default is like calling subprime, the math does NOT work, and it WILL happen, but it can stretch on for a semi long time…until credit gives out, and margin call. It’s not like a 100yr thing though, we can run spreadsheets and see the numbers go wacko fast, we have math support, just no way of placing a year on it. Why would she say 12 months?

Never looked at state debt, but I would assume it’s the same game. States are financially retarded, we all know that. Spending money on pointless stuff, employing idiots who do nothing, etc. They should just sell California to the Chinese, if it’s even worth anything.

PA, she became famous before this for predicting the dividend cuts at several large banks. After she became famous from that, she went in to this claim. She managed money for a few years but closed the fund a year or so ago.

^ Oh right, okay that chick.