“On October 20, 1987, the DJIA had bottomed out at 1,841.01, down 881.41 points from it’s previous high of 2,722.42 which was achieved on August 25, 1987. This was a 32.38% drop from the market high of only two months earlier. The following day the market climbed 10.15% for a gain of 186.84 points. Two years later on August 24, 1989 the DJIA finally passed it’s previous high and closed at 2,734.64. Ten years later on October 21, 1997, the DJIA closed at 8,060.44, for a net gain of 6,219.43 points or a percentage of 337.82%. Let’s now take a look at 1929. On September 4, 1929 the DJIA closed at 379.61. Less than two months later on October 29, 1929, it was at 230.07 down 39.39% or 149.54 points. The following day, the DJIA climbed 12.34% - this looks much more like what occurred today, than what happened in 1987. Two weeks later on November 13, 1929 the market closed at 198.69. It was now down 47.66% from it’s previous high! But, again on the following day it climbed back up another 9.36% giving us more hope. But alas, we did not see the market low of 41.22 until July 8, 1932. This was a total drop of 89.14%. Our market did not recover and see that previous high of 379.61 until November 17, 1954 - more than 25 years later.”
29 as well. the credit card crisis is the next to follow. I think 6000 is the bottom.
- But that rhymes with '29. Relief rally followed by arse falling out of equity market as earnings disappoint again and again and again.
Buying SDS into tommorow rally
bump… what year is it?
Panic of 1907. Look at the similarities; possibility we can have a “V” bottom.
Interesting… We can only hope since the Panic of 1907 was less than a 2 yr problem. I’m thinking this problem is bigger than that.
I hope it’s more like 1929, because if it’s like 1907 then we are a few decades away from 1929. Better to get through with it now and clean the system. Quick recovories make me more nervous.
If it’s 29 we are about 1 decade from World War II and 60 million deaths!
It’s all about earnings. Estimates are still too high. The risk is still to the downside. Right now we have a lot of technical factors driving the market. The hedge fund pain has just started to be felt. The unwinding will take longer than expected. Countries are failing overseas and the economic data here in the states has only jus now started to show the extreme pressure on the real economy from this crises. Just look at how long the tech bubble took to deflate, we are simply to early into this. That said, this is no 1929.