ABC Co is considering expanding service to the Far East region. The project has an initial outlay of $10,000,000 with an expected life of 5 years. Annual after-tax operating cash flows have a 50% probability of being $2,000,000 for the five years and a 50% probability of being $3,000,000. The required rate of return is 18% for this project. The company has an option to abadon the project and receive the abandonment value of $6,000,000 in one year.

The optimal abandonment strategy is to:

a) not abandon in either low or high CF states.

b) abandon if either low or high CF occurs

c) abandon only if low CF occurs.

OK i’ll show you my working. All my working shows that any possible path just destroys value so i picked b

**Expected annual after tax operating CF:**

0.5 (2,000,000) + 0.5 (3,000,000) = $2,500,000

NPV = -10,000,000 + 2,500,000/1.18^5 = -2,182,072

**If high cash flow occurs**

-10,000,000 + 3,000,000/1.18^5 = -618,486.93

**If high cash flow occurs and abandoned:**

-10,000,000 + 6,000,000+3,000,000/1.18^5 = -2,372,881

**If low CF occurs and abandoned:**

-10,000,000 + 2,000,000 + 6,000,000/1.18 = -3,220,338

Can somebody help please?