First, Congrats! It’s inspiring to see a thoughtful contributor here getting some good news. Hope more is coming!
Well, with macro stuff, you generally look at trend economic growth and where in the business cycle the country is. Then, you check markets for their recent performance, remembering that they tend to lead economic events by about 45 degrees. A lot of economies are fairly synchronized right now, but that isn’t always the case.
Then you start to look at what the economic directions for change are… are exports rising, is the trade deficit changing markedly. Has the currency been relatively stable or fluctuating all over the place. Does inflation seem to be under control, and what direction are things going.
Then I do a political overlay… does the government want to do economically sensible things, or is it under pressure to overregulate or overspend. Can the government fund itself, and at what rate of interest if it borrows. Is public order a problem? Most of this feeds into estimations of risk and to me are indications of whether a traditional market risk premia are too high or too low.
Remember that markets and economics are not fully correlated: You can have good companies with overpriced stocks as well as bad companies with underpriced ones. Similarly, you can have good countries with overvalued markets, and bad countries with undervalued ones. So don’t forget that valuations are still important in Macro stuff.
Market meaningful political events are very hard to predict. If things seem very stable, then political events are probably already in market prices. Betting on rare events and being right makes for a lot of money and good headlines, but most of the geniuses in that game are probably just lucky, because you can be right about the event and wrong about the timing and lose. Political analysis is about risk measures, and less so about return opportunities. And there is almost always some additional mechanism that you haven’t thought of going on.
EMs tend to have a lot of momentum to them. When they’re hot, they are hot for a while; when they tank, people are afraid to go back for a while. Of course, there’s the value in being contrarian. A lot of the performance may come from liquidity premia, because when people run for the exits, the doors may be tiny.