What top down steps do you take to decide whether to buy an index fund of a particular country?

AF, Long time no see.

I am thinking about taking some broad based equity exposure through 2020 and want exposure to an index tracker. Not concerned with any active mutual funds.

As a result of this approach my decision making is based much more on broad view top down macro themes.

What factors would you look at to determine the strength of an economy going forward and therefore the earnings potential of that nations equity index?

As an example if I wanted to decide whether to allocate to the FTSE 100 in the UK or the S&P500 what macro factors do I look at and forecast going forward?

I am used to bottom up investing looking at company fundamentals, so this is a bit of a different ball game for me.


Look into the research from Star capital, Meb Faber, and alpha architect. They have all foreign index funds that are rules based. You may get inspiration from their quant approach and use it in your discretionary style

None, just buy the all country index if you don’t have any opinion.