If I told you 1 year ago Housing would go down the tubes Mortgages would need to be reduced and go unpaid Merrill, Lehman, Freddie, Fannie, AIG, Washington Mutual, and Wachovia would disappear as we know them Credit would freeze Unemployment was rapidly increasing Europe would have bank failures a country (iceland) would be on the tip of bankruptcy Russia stock market would be almost ruined —What would you predict for the S&P 500 and DOW? 600 and 6000? Just curious if anchoring (which is what I’m seeing) is happening. People aren’t adjusting their estimates…
bump
Joey made this call a year ago. He brought the timestamped post to prove it.
I don’t think that is his point - he’s saying, if a year ago he told you all these things were going to happen and asked you where you thought the DOW would be at the same time, what would you have said?
ditchdigger2CFA Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Joey made this call a year ago. He brought the > timestamped post to prove it. Could someone post a link to that post please?
newsuper Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I don’t think that is his point - he’s saying, if > a year ago he told you all these things were going > to happen and asked you where you thought the DOW > would be at the same time, what would you have > said? Exactly. thanks newsuper
anupamjain008 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > ditchdigger2CFA Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > Joey made this call a year ago. He brought the > > timestamped post to prove it. > > > Could someone post a link to that post please? use search term “prognosticators” – i think
Honestly if you told me all of that in one sitting I would assume the same thing. Dow ~6-7K
Honestly a year ago the Dow was at 14165, so 6000 on the Dow represents nearly a 60% decline. One year ago most of us knew housing was going down the tubes and mortgages were freezing up. Most of the other stuff you mention is auto-correlated. You tell me a few of those things, and I can predict that the others would likely be true as well. You’re also cherry picking information. AIG, FNM and FRE don’t exists as we know them - because they got unlimited credit lines from the government. All MER did was merge into a stronger institution. With all this information, I’d have predicted a 30-40% decline, which is about where we are.