cutting interest rates? anybody think now is a good time to invest? I suppose i would be looking for a good currency hedged ETF, anybody have an angle?
Yeah, but don’t the India ETFs have a P/E of like 30? That doesn’t seem expensive?
I guess prices have come down a bit recently, but I don’t really understand the India obsession. Chinese A-shares are still only 16. And the future is China, not India.
I have been long India for a long time - now, I am flat. Currency hedged ETF’s might make sense but markets are too volatile these days to trade anything > intraday.
+~3% day before, -~3% yestday, it’s too much volatility for a medium term position.
Also, the rate cut was lower than what the market was expecting. But I suppose what Rajan is doing makes sense because if Yellen pulls the trigger, all EM currencies and equities are going to be in trouble. So yeah, it’s a wait and watch game for me but I do take some intraday positions.
I’m not sure it’s worth hedging the currency. Very expensive and the USD/INR rate has been pretty stable over the past two years.
Also, Purealpha I think China A shares P/E is now around 25x. Was less than 10x last year!
Wait, isn’t there crazy inflation in India? Not sure about this…
Yeah, I got it cheap back in Nov. It’s gone up so fast hard to find consistent numbers, but I see a lot of ETF stat sites still saying 19Xish. That could be wrong though.
But in the contest between India and China I still say China. Especially since you can buy individual names in China thru the HK link (there are still 6X solid names like ICBC), but I don’t believe we are allowed to buy individual stocks in India (my broker IB lets me see quotes won’t let me buy unless I’m Indian).
its cooled down…the wpi was actually negative in the precceding month but we do expect bad monsoon this time around
Crazy inflation = Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Russia. India’s nowhere near those standards.