# What's your guess on Passing rate ? My guess is 42 %

As the subject says i am guessing the passing rate would be around 42%.

who cares? There is no need of guessing It will be between 35-45 for sure

Year L1 L2 L3 2009 46% 41% 49% 2008 35% 46% 53% 2007 39% 40% 50% 2006 40% 48% 76% 2005 35% 56% 55% 2004 35% 32% 64% 2003 41% 47% 68% 2002 44% 47% 58% 2001 49% 46% 82% 2000 52% 54% 65% Somewhere around there.

I’m going with 40% because it’s a nice round number. With that assumption, I only need to be in the 60th percentile to pass. I find that hopeful.

Anyway, I pulled some data and apparently, CFA Level 1 June pass rates have been about 65% correlated with SPX yearly returns over the past six years. Not sure about December pass rates. This seems a bit counterintuitive. I always imagined that people would be desperate and study harder during bad years. Of course, there might be some weird phenomenon that would cause higher average scores to translate into lower pass rates. Maybe CFAI is controlling supply of passes. Or this correlation might be purely coincidental.

I think thats spurious correlation there Walrus

Yeah, that is likely. It’s just more fun to come up with conspiracy theories about the CFAI.

I think you guys have a lot of time on your hands!

Besides pass rate, is there benchmark of marks for passing ?

videsh77 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Besides pass rate, is there benchmark of marks for > passing ? CFAI doesn’t publish pass marks. However, AF members usually try to estimate the pass mark using the 40/60/80 rule.