we should underweight the treasury sector and overweight the Mortgage, Asset-based and CMBS sector.
I get that we should underweight the treasury sector because treasury sector performs well when spread widens. I get that CMBS kinda works the opposite way with Treasury…but what is the explaination for overweighting in mortgage asset based and CMBS sector? MBS has negative convexity which limites the profitability when rates decline (from the narrowing of spread), no?
Or the narrowing of spread simply means default rate, not interest rate, drops?