Clearly late stage but If one wanted to buy into US now, how much upside do you feel there is to go?
9 year record bull run, US economy in pretty good health, rate rises coming up, tax cuts, vastly over-valued tech still driving earnings
Seems to be a lot of conflicting messages. If you had money now would you go into US or wait until it tapers off?
This question makes me think ‘when will the recession happen’? The answer = No one really knows, but what I do know is that historically industries that have done well into a recession have been consumer staples, energy, health care, and utilities. If you’re worried about downside risk then allocate to more defensive industries and fixed income.
edit: To actually answer your question. I think this run has more upside.
Probably in the 8th inning of a 24 inning game but there’s only 1 out per inning played with softballs and it’s coach’s pitch.
Inning five or six of nine assuming there isn’t some sort of exogenous emerging market shock.
very late cycle. i hate the baseball analogy as i dont play baseball. but id say we are in the last inning. with that said i would still stay invested. just hold whatever your current allocation is, dont lever uop
another year or so but 2-3 years if china unleashes some fiscal stim before rather than after the wipeout. tech is likely tapped out for this cycle (semis way extended, software way extended). industrials could bump a bit higher if trade tensions wane a bit. we could see a final leg pushed by energy, materials (especially if china unleashes), REITs and financials. consumer staples, telecom and utilities could give a final push at the very end as folks rotate, and then we’re in for it.
Just follow the trend - be it up/down. Eventually, you’ll be right and make a killing.
I was just asked this in a panel conference call interview 2 hours ago haha. My answer was roughly along the lines of late expansion broader cycle view, waning movement to the upside, high relative valuations, inorganically propped up bottom lines (tax cuts, Non GAAP measures, etc.), rotation on the horizon, corporate debt default risk, and the infamous oracle none other than…the yield curve.
Jerome Powell- “But it’s different this time” smh
The only thing that comes to mind is that the obvious risk which will cause a recession is not being talked about by main stream media. It’s happening now, just a question of what and how long can it last?
For me, my ole premise has always been fiscal issues in the U.S. combined with somesort of structural change such as demographic shifts globally that accelerate the problem. That train has been running for a very long time though so who knows but I will eventually be right. Maybe old and bitter by that time but right nonetheless.
Here’s what Mark Tepper, president and CEO of Strategic Wealth Partners, told CNBC’s “Trading Nation ” on Thursday.
— The first indicator is an inverted yield curve. This correctly predicted the last seven recessions since 1968. It typically “flashes red” by inverting 12 months before the beginning of a recession. Right now the yield curve is pretty flat, but not yet inverted.
— Second, is the year-over-year change of the Leading Economic Index, which predicts future global economic movements. When it contracts, a recession usually follows. Currently, the index is still growing at 5 percent year over year, so there’s no immediate need for concern.
— Last is the tightening of monetary policy. Although the Fed is intent on raising rates, policy tightening shouldn’t be expected for at least another year.
Put all three indicators together and they have correctly predicted the last seven recessions with not a single false positive. At this point, there still appears to be one year of runway before these three red flags hit stocks. When the convergence happens, switch your position to underweight stocks, but right now maintain your stock portfolios and ride out the rest of this bull market.
Bottom line: The three biggest recession indicators are not showing warning signs just yet, so continue to ride the bull market for at least a year.
wow thats so easy thanks Tepper
1st inning. Lever up 50x. Pick 2 random stocks that are also levered 50x. Big gains!
Mr. Saut is a big fan of Turkey Swiss wraps. Just my observations from when I used to see him downstairs in the Cafe.
no way dude. you used to work at RJ?
Saut is a good one IMO
Interesting read.
Odd they recommend buying with the yield curve being so flat at this stage in a very old bull market.
Wonder what their thoughts are on the recently short-term demand for prime money market funds due to the repatriation of capital back to the U.S. and how that’s kept a cap on the short-term T-bill rates?
My guess is that no one is paying attention so there ya go.
Edit: Yield curve at first rate hike vs. yield curve today.
Yep this is why I was telling foos that short term rate be the smart thing cuz ish guaranteed. At least the long term ones didn’t go up like crazy. Quite fascinating!
bull markets dont die of old age, they die of excesses
We are at the top of a head and shoulder pattern. I advise to take profits and deploy in a non correlated cash producing asset , such as cryptokitties