Which upcoming world events would you guys be interested in betting on the probabilities of their occurring?

I listened to an interesting podcast:


The jist is that most professional forecasters are shitty, surprise surprise. I thought it may be fun to have a little contest go on where we make analysis of upcoming events, then make rationales for them, assign probabilities, and determine afterwards what was driving our predictions, what we misunderstood, both in how we predicted and in terms of available information, and what we could do to better approach decision making in the future. Any interest or suggestions for what we could cover? Or in other words, what do you guys think are some fun, fairly specific, unique/constrained historical events or scenarios, which have multiple reasonable outcomes, which can be predicted on? Also, how would you go about researching, constructing your thesis, and assessing the results? Or would anyone be up to start a team on this tournament?


These links further describes the guy in the podcast:




I considered joining the good judgment project. But considering my job requires making predictions each day, I decided a better course of action would be to monitor/test my accuracy on those instead of random ones. That way I hopefully get the benefit of practice without much added hours required.

I’m curious about this guy who calls himself an “edge master”.


There’s so much material here, what is it that of all of it that made you focus of all things on edging? What is it that makes you associate so heavily with edging?

Do people still get paid to ‘make predictions’? I thought that ended but maybe not. Such a fraud industry/job. Selling a prediction is nothing more than selling the buyer the ability to blame someone else when things don’t go well. That’s the only value of a third party prediction/forecast.

What do you think sell side research/buy side research is…

a fraud.

huuuh. Strangers in the night

Indeed it is. But hey, these practitioners have “high conviction,” isn’t that what they say? I always have a good laugh when I meet with teams of stockpickers and the PM tells me that he has high conviction in these names as if that’s some kind of selling point…like, what buddy, you’re going to focus on names you don’t have conviction in? Charlatans.

Lol why are you here bro

lets play this game. so dan loeb just took his largest position on nestle.


does he win or lose?

I think that this is less of a unique historical event and more of an investment idea. For this I’d prefer to stick with things outside of investing. Unless you and/or others would prefer to do some collaborative analysis:

trying to wake up the sheep. on things financial, things are pretty easy. Here are my rules:

  • Your opinion doesn’t count unless you have $ at risk relying on that opinion
  • Don’t try to predict the future
  • Take good risks. What’s a good risk you ask?
    • an area you understand well
    • you understand and can quantify your downside risks very well
    • you have a handful of upside scenarios that would provide significant upside above expectations
    • you don’t have to know which scenario is going to happen, only that if 1 happens, you’re deep in the money
    • if none of them comes to fruition, that’s fine because you priced it such that your cost of money is covered
  • If it takes more than simple math to understand why you should be investing in something, stay away
  • for christ sake, stay away from excel models.

At which step is the dividend discount model incorporated?

right after you put your d!ck in that box.

I realize my asset class is old timey when it comes to sophistication of its players, which is why i like it so much.

IDK Charlie it sounds like you’re trying to predict the future. It sounds like you just like to shit on other people.

haha, yea i enjoy defecating on others.

it’s not so much predicting the future as positioning yourself to benefit from what might happen that’s good at the same time not getting hurt by what could happen that’s bad, the whole asymmetric probabilities thing (which I have zero technical understanding of, but know it when i see it). basically getting exposure to potential sources of upside without paying for it.