Who still has the balls to invest? Markets really seem like a casino now. I have some money which I am really using to day-trade. Won a lot on some and lost a lot on others making my position only marginally better than break-even. Thinking of stopping for a while if I make one more good trade (just lucky guesses at this point as all logic has dissapeared). What are your experiences and what stocks are you interested in/avoiding?
I had 75% of my portfolio in cash and 25% in bonds since 2005. I was expecting a major recession. At times during 05 and 06, I was second guessing myself but stuck to my guns. Since the summer of 08, I’ve been slowly entering the equity market (investing a fixed amount per month from my cash allocation in mutual funds). I will continue doing so even though I’m down on my equity portion of my portfolio. My plan is to be at 60% equities 40% bonds in 5 to 10 years.
Investing ha ha ha! Thats funny…only naive people are “investing” anymore. I am shorting every fake bounce (with inverse ETFs).
louisvillegrad Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Investing ha ha ha! Thats funny…only naive > people are “investing” anymore. I am shorting > every fake bounce (with inverse ETFs). One day, that’s going to be a really bad strategy (just like being levered up long was a year ago). Are you sure you know how to time that right?
“My plan is to be at 60% equities 40% bonds in 5 to 10 years.” "I am shorting every fake bounce (with inverse ETFs). " Wow, if these are the investment strategies that the CFA teaches, no wonder we are in the financial mess that we are in right now!
“One day, that’s going to be a really bad strategy (just like being levered up long was a year ago). Are you sure you know how to time that right?” I am absolutely sure. The DOW still has a long way down to go - its being artificially held up.
louisvillegrad Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I am absolutely sure. The DOW still has a long way > down to go - its being artificially held up. Artifically held up by TARP or restrictions on naked shorting?
You mean no restrictions on naked shorting. The PPT is desperately keeping the DOW from imploding. Wonder how long that will last.
you debbie downers are ridiculous. the dow and S&P are at the same level they were in the bottom of 2002. they havent plummeted to unknown depths and if you look at a long term return of the dow or s&p this steep decline does not look that out of sync (even though its the steepest drop since the depression). HOWEVER, markets are long term, they have imho, for the most part, adjusted from the subprime issue and are toiling around for a while before the next bull run. by not saying they will grow is not really having faith in the long term expansionary capability of the US. i recently made roth contributions straight to an aggressive mutual fund last week and imho you would be unrealistic to think that now is not a good buying opportunity. warren buffet reallocated to the market a few months ago and to quote him (although we have prolly all heard this at least a couple times lately): “be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful” lastly, for you conservative investors, check out short term bond mutual funds right now. they are one of the few decent returns out there right now (other than the high yield bond funds). yielding around 4.5% with low NAV volatility!! not too shabby.
Still allocating a decent amount of my pay into my 401(k). I’m in a lot of domestic large cap value funds and an international value fund as well as a few specialty funds. Obviously I believe value will outperform over the next few years. The money I am investing elsewhere on my own is money that I won’t need (hopefully) for 40 years. There are too many opportunities in the equities market to pass on right now. Shoot, I’ll risk buying a thousand shares of BAC @ 5.
I am literally petrified as to what will happen if boa and c go under and pissed at the inaction of obama.
marcus phoenix Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I am literally petrified as to what will happen if > boa and c go under and pissed at the inaction of > obama. Yeah, i mean, he’s been in charge two days and nothing has been fixed. Really, what does he think he is doing? %&*^head
i know ur being sarcastic…but he’s already delivering his promise on guantanamo bay
arbitageur Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > i know ur being sarcastic…but he’s already > delivering his promise on guantanamo bay Yeah I know. The last part of my post wasn’t aimed at Obama.
“I am absolutely sure. The DOW still has a long way down to go - its being artificially held up.” Beware anyone who is so ignorant and naive as to be “absolutely sure” about anything in the financial markets.
“My plan is to be at 60% equities 40% bonds in 5 to 10 years. Wow, if these are the investment strategies that the CFA teaches, no wonder we are in the financial mess that we are in right now!” That was a strange comment. If this guy is for real, then he cashed out 75% of his portfolio when the market was >50% higher than current levels and is now buying back in after the October crash. That is an extremely brave and sound strategy. Most of the sheep, sorry investment professionals, I know were just starting to load up on equities again in '05 and are now selling eveything near the bottom. Buy low, sell high. It’s the first commandment of investing. If only all investors were so rational, then there wouldn’t be such a mess to begin with.
“Buy low, sell high.” --> sounds simple enough, until you realize that it’s darned hard to figure out what low is and high is at any time you actually have to make a decision. Even if you’re in a bubble and you know prices are too high, you look pretty stupid if you sell too early. That’s where investment discipline comes in. A rational decision process is about making sure your risks are more likely than not to pay off, or at least the money you make on your hits is going to be substantially larger than what you lose on all of your misses. So buying low and selling high are really about managing probabilities of profiting, given the knowledge available to you. If you can’t do that, then a highly diversified portfolio that takes advantage of the fact that the economy tends to grow more often than it contracts, and that this means that companies that provide goods and services are likely to make profits that turn into securities growth and income.
former trader Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- >My plan is to be at 60% equities > 40% bonds in 5 to 10 years. How old are you, 50?
hey treasuries were the top performer last year…
"Even if you’re in a bubble and you know prices are too high, you look pretty stupid if you sell too early. " Just using this guy ‘former trader’ as an example. He supposedly sold out in 2005 when the S&P was around 1200. For the next 2 years, he’d have looked wrong cos the market went to 1500, but now he’s been proved very right. I think going long now is a similar call. Sure the market may well be at 600 in two years time, but it will get back to 1200 within five years (based on my estimation of probable market eventualities of course) and buying now at 800 will look like a very smart move. I’m really only paraphrasing Buffett here. He says you should buy when others are fearful (i.e. now) and not be too worried about calling a bottom because you’re sure to get it wrong. Stocks are 40% cheaper than they were last year, so your 10 year return is much more likely to be positive if you invest now than if you had invested 12 months ago. Despite this, all the investor confidence surveys you see will show lower confidence levels now than last year. This is irrational but understandable human bias. It’s not just naive individuals either. Most investment trusts will have a lower equity weighting now than 12 months ago and a higher cash weighting. In other words: buying high, selling low. This is irrational and counter-intuitive.