A : Why should I appear in exam ? exam fee is a sunk cost to me…I dont want to waste some more money by turning up on 7th June…not to mention the gaurnteed insult of failing B : You should, if you are planning for it next year…as for every fail is a pass…and you will have one less (strong) applicant next year
number of passes are NOT dependent on: - total number of candidates - number of fails - average score rather, it is a function of what the top scorers get, so it doesn’t affect us at all if you take it or not, unless you would have been a top scorer but chose not to take it i would say - don’t waste your time and enjoy the extra 17 days between now and then
but by appearing…I can affect the third factor that is average score 
i was referring to the fact that the “number of passes” NOT being dependent on the average score, but rather a function of the top scorers (not average scorers)
sublimity - but you have to think about the more people that show up for the exam makes the 1% bigger, so the total number of candidates is actually a factor. If everyone in the whole world took the CFA exam, the top 1% score would be pretty crappy (obviously everyone can’t take L2/L3, but lets say everyone that could take L2 did take L2, which is not the case). ie if 40,000 people took L2 (roughly the number this year), top 1% of scores will be the top 400 candidates. The top 1% candidates scores might be something like a range of 88 - 92, having a mean of 90. Lets say 5,000 more people think because they didn’t study and L2 now has 3 choices, they will take it and give it a shot, making the total 45,000 for L2. Now the top 450 candidates consist of the top 1% and their scores will probably be slightly lower as the number of people in the 1% interval is larger. The range might be 87 - 92, with a mean of 89.5. These extra 5,000 people who signed up might save a handful of people who would have been Band 10s with 40,000 people, but now squeaked by with a pass with 45,000 people as the pass score is slightly slightly lower.
What better way to spend a Saturday than taking a test? Me I would do it just to get away from the family for about 10 hours
Dude, chill out. You should show up because you have a great chance of passing - every one of your test scores have been 70+!! There are 17 days left, you have plenty of time to patch any holes you’re worried about. Enough of this talk of quitting and get back to work!!
This dude’s been scoring over 70 on the practice exams and is thinking about not showing up for the test? Lol…what a tard (no offense intended, of course)…but that is over the top stupid, IMHO.
Including book 7, no less! >Re: Book 1 Scores >Posted by: Alchemist1320 (IP Logged) [hide posts from this user] >Date: May 19, 2009 01:34AM >Sample 1: 73% > >Book 6 >1AM: 77% >1 PM 83 % > >2 AM : 75 % >2 PM : 73 % > >Book 7 >1 AM : 75 % > > >My performance is kind of stangnated…every time I do few big blunders…and get two >wild guesses right…worst…in last exam I got four 6/6/ and three 9/12… > >so afraid …as a bad 7th June and I might be forced to re-take this >wish i can get 80 % consistently
skillionaire Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > This dude’s been scoring over 70 on the practice > exams and is thinking about not showing up for the > test? > > Lol…what a tard (no offense intended, > of course)…but that is over the top stupid, > IMHO. Totally agree. Or, he was exaggerating his practice exam scores. But he did say he didn’t want to waste MORE money, so maybe he’s in an isolated location and has to fly somewhere to take it.
ROFLMAO!!! That makes my day…nah dude, you should definitely stay home, you’ve got no shot…too funny - he’s gonna be in the top 1% and he’s contemplating staying home. These posts about people looking for attention and sympathy for the most part I simple skip over, but I’m glad I read this one - I’m only in the mid-70s on my exams, so I’m not even thinking about showing up. Screw the hundreds of hours I’ve put in, I quit. Who’s with me?
skillionaire Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > This dude’s been scoring over 70 on the practice > exams and is thinking about not showing up for the > test? > > Lol…what a tard (no offense intended, > of course)…but that is over the top stupid, > IMHO. +1
you should be shot…but not by me, as this is a Violation of: Priority of Transactions…
I understand his feeling through, you are getting there, around 73-75 and afraid of just short of a little. But, I would definitely attend the exam, what’s the hell, you prepared so long and you mind to show up for 6 hours in the exam day. Just do it, even you fail, next year you would have an idea what areas you needed to improve. Go take it, be a man, do the right thing:D
Buddy, we’re all in the same boat – even people scoring above 80 on every exam could get fugged because they get unlucky and the exam tests all the topics that they’re weak on, or someone who’s consistently scored in the low 60s could ace it because the exam only tested the few topics that he knew. It’s a luck game, but it’s also not a game for the feint of heart or someone who doesn’t have confidence, so as far as I’m concerned, the original poster can just stay home. For real – if you’ve put in the required time and effort and you doubt yourself that much, your self-esteem must suck, and I wouldn’t hire you. So either man up or quit, but whatever you do, own it.
Note: the following are conservative estimates value of passing the CFA exam = 1000/yr in salary increase for the next 30 yrs. Assuming a 10% discount rate, PV(passing the CFA) = $9418 value of failing the CFA exam = -$80(two lap dances and 8 shots of tequila to drown your sorrows away) and -$600 (10 hrs wasted at $60/hr) probability of you passing (conservative estimate based on your mock/practice scores) = 30% All the other time investments/fees paid are sunk costs… value of writing the exam = (9418*.3)+(680*.7) = $2349 Dang. I just spent 5 minutes doing this calculation (sunk cost = 1/12*$60 = $5)
It’s an interesting “theoretical” and “mathematical” problem that I’ll have to think more about, considering all factors: - scoring of the L2 test takers before/after adding people - scoring of the top 1% before/adding people - impact of 3 or 4 answer chioces - your probability of passing - relevance to practical problem - etc. “Practically,” I don’t even care about the MPS and I’m shooting to get >70% in all topics. I’ve set my margin of error so high above what these changes entail that it is irrelevant to me what these fluctuations are and the average score is effectively irrelevant. philip.platt Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > sublimity - but you have to think about the more > people that show up for the exam makes the 1% > bigger, so the total number of candidates is > actually a factor. > > If everyone in the whole world took the CFA exam, > the top 1% score would be pretty crappy (obviously > everyone can’t take L2/L3, but lets say everyone > that could take L2 did take L2, which is not the > case). > > > > ie if 40,000 people took L2 (roughly the number > this year), top 1% of scores will be the top 400 > candidates. The top 1% candidates scores might be > something like a range of 88 - 92, having a mean > of 90. > > Lets say 5,000 more people think because they > didn’t study and L2 now has 3 choices, they will > take it and give it a shot, making the total > 45,000 for L2. Now the top 450 candidates consist > of the top 1% and their scores will probably be > slightly lower as the number of people in the 1% > interval is larger. The range might be 87 - 92, > with a mean of 89.5. > > These extra 5,000 people who signed up might save > a handful of people who would have been Band 10s > with 40,000 people, but now squeaked by with a > pass with 45,000 people as the pass score is > slightly slightly lower.
sublimity Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > “Practically,” I don’t even care about the MPS and > I’m shooting to get >70% in all topics. I’ve set > my margin of error so high above what these > changes entail that it is irrelevant to me what > these fluctuations are and the average score is > effectively irrelevant. > This. We can only control what we do, so let’s stop worrying about everyone else and own this thing!!
I’m guessing there will be alot of people taking the exam this year - people will do anything to get a leg up given the recession and high unemployment.