kblade Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > good time to short crap like GM that, I do agree with.
Agree with kblade. My these large jumps are typically non-selective and an opportunity to separate wheat from chaff.
BosyBillups Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Lol “I think if we can close up 6-7% with massive > moves ups in the financials then we may have seen > the beginning of the end in terms of the market > carnage…economy,” > > Wow - in one day we erase decades of overleverage! > NICE CFA DUDE Ya, but do you HONESTLY think we’re going to go back to some less levered world, a “this time we won’t make the same mistakes” sort of thing…not me, we’ll eventually rally from here, go up another 100-150% and then repeat the same process…just with a different trigger this time than housing, tech etc.
bchadwick Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Agree with kblade. My these large jumps are > typically non-selective and an opportunity to > separate wheat from chaff. mmm chaff.
CFA_Halifax Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Ya, but do you HONESTLY think we’re going to go > back to some less levered world? Yes, unequivocally.
Not sure what the question is: Do you mean: will the post crisis world stabilize at a lower leverage ratio than before the crisis? Yes, definitely. Or do you mean: will the post crisis world stabilize at a higher leverage ratio than we have now? That’s more difficult to say. Dependable assets will be levered up again above current values. Undependable assets probably won’t. The net effect is still hard to determine. What will change is how people decide whether an asset is dependable or not.
Maybe, but these leverage cycles seem to happen consistently throughout human economic history, I am pretty sure it’s an evolutionary reaction…we constanly bite off more than we can chew, choke and then wait for someone to bail us out!
CFA_Halifax Wrote: >we’ll eventually rally from here, go up > another 100-150% and then repeat the same > process…just with a different trigger this time > than housing, tech etc. I agree - this same process is going to repeat over and over again with some other bubble, some different crisis, some other “I can’t believe you didn’t see this crisis coming effect” resonating throughout the media. The question isn’t really if it will repeat, but when and by what magnitude. - - - “Nowhere does history indulge in repetitions so often or so uniformly as in Wall Street. When you read contemporary accounts of booms or panics, the one thing that strikes you most forcibly is how little either stock speculation or stock speculators today differ from yesterday. The game does not change and neither does human nature.” - Edwin Lefèvre, 1923
“All of this has happened before, and all of it will happen again.” “The harbinger of death will lead them to a new home.”
Markets reflect human nature and that will never change.
I don’t look at day to day gyrations. . . only profit to earnings ratios.
CFA_Halifax Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Maybe, but these leverage cycles seem to happen > consistently throughout human economic history, I > am pretty sure it’s an evolutionary reaction…we > constanly bite off more than we can chew, choke > and then wait for someone to bail us out! Let me ask you this: if this were a stock, are you buying or selling? 
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_WxQ_r3_IH0U/SXs2DE8NuiI/AAAAAAAAA54/T3a6YZ67bmk/s1600-h/debttoGDP.png IMHO - we will be starving for credit in the coming years, if not decade(s).
But that chart just goes up, up, up… gotta buy! You can’t lose! It’s a guaranteed winner! …And we have low transaction costs.
lol Sounds like Cramer.
isn’t that the truth…