I wasn’t positioned to take advantage of it, but it is comforting to see! Wow!
should be a good temporary bottom at least.
Time to reposition those shorts again.
i’d be weary to go short anytime soon. beware the massive jolt to investor confidence a citi profit will have. its as if the beggar on the street began giving out change… its dam confusing.
Hmmm, on the same day that Bernanke says it’s the worst recession since the 30s and everyone reacts to one good day at the office at Citi. It’s a bounce in my books based on one data point. And those accounting figures are certainly not enough to encourage banks to lend again. It’s illusionary and it doesn’t alleviate the fact that there is still plenty more problems in the housing markets and elsewhere (insurance companies anyone?).
whether the backing behind the bounce is illusory or not, if it does bounce 20%, i wouldn’t want to be short right now. the problem is that things only look better after the market is up 30-40%. i’m one of the biggest bears around, but i know when to not jump into an oversold market, at least temporarily, that is bouncing on some extremely forward looking data. bernanke saying its a bad recession isn’t even a data point, we already knew he’d say that, its obvious. citi’s is a REAL data point showing you that hey, if the worst bank in the world can post a profit, expect much better from the better banks. if by april, most banks are posting profits and the market is up 50% from this point, this will be the day that started that rally. there’s a lot more reason to be long in the short term. whether being short for the long-term is a different stance but i think the shorts will get hammered here for a couple weeks.
I guess we’ll see. Good luck with your trading.
Banks are really at the center of the financial crisis, so good news like Citi making money is like getting an electric jolt to a heart-dead patient. The question is, will the heartbeat continue, or just drop off again. If lending can start to flow to businesses, maybe employment will pick up (or stop dropping). If employment picks up, maybe people will be able to pay their mortgages. If mortgages are paid, maybe toxic assets won’t be quite so damaging to banks. Repeat.
Boooyahhhh…I think if we can close up 6-7% with massive moves ups in the financials then we may have seen the beginning of the end in terms of the market carnage…economy, who knows?
hey, if everyone gets as pumped up as Hali, we could be looking at a 50% rally.
Agree w/ bchadwick. Equities are less than 20% of my portfolio, but it is nice to see a big up day for a change.
MattLikesAnalysis Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > hey, if everyone gets as pumped up as Hali, we > could be looking at a 50% rally. Dude, I am facing some serious personal career and financial uncertainties, so I am taking any positive I can get right about now. 
Lol “I think if we can close up 6-7% with massive moves ups in the financials then we may have seen the beginning of the end in terms of the market carnage…economy,” Wow - in one day we erase decades of overleverage! NICE CFA DUDE
MattLikesAnalysis Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > hey, if everyone gets as pumped up as Hali, we > could be looking at a 50% rally. Just thinking. A 50% rally gets the S&P500 back up to 1015. We were above 1200 before Lehman’s. I could see us back around the 900 mark by the end of the year (i.e. flat YoY) if the economy starts to pick up. Will be a while before we’re back above 1200 I fear. Let’s just hope the economy doesn’t keep tanking and we end the year below 500! I’d worry for my job in that scenario.
So my gold and treasuries (TIPS) positions have been hurt today. I guess people are selling there in order to participate in the rally. I still think that basically one needs to be prepared for lots of volatility going forward. Technically, there will probably be a test of the low levels again - if yesterday’s low turns out to be a support level on a second test, then it may make sense to jump in. Woah, look at me - I don’t claim to be a technical guru, but that last paragraph sounds like one of those guys on Bloomberg.
We would still be below the 200 day MA with the S&P @ 1000, and Dow @ 8500… if we stay below those levels, the macro-bear is still in-tact.
good time to short crap like GM
so looks like the crisis is over. what next? life is kinda boring now.
needhelp Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > so looks like the crisis is over. what next? life > is kinda boring now. LOL +1