Ok guys, Here’s the deal. There has been alot of speculation about the pass rate of AFers. So let’s do a crude empirical test. Everyone sitting for Level II 2008 pls reply to this thread (once only pls) with whether you think you will pass or fail and what you think the pass rate for AFers will be this year. For this to be meaningful in anyway (I know there are flaws in the method but it’s going to be a quick and crude test) everyone who uses this forum, from the veterans, addicts, occasional posters, regulars lurkers, etc needs to respond before the exam AND come back once the results are out to let us know whether they passed or failed. I am guessing there are anywhere between 200-400 Level II candidates using the Level II forum so sample size is reasonable and result of this test may also give kudos to Forum creators and obviously the regular value-added contributors for making it a success. I will commit to going through all the responses in August and coming back with the figures! My reply is: PASS (think I am very borderline but with 8 days to make a difference am being optimistic!) 80% AF pass rate

I think there will definately be some survivorship bias in the results… ie, the members that pass are more likely to post their results. But anyways… PASS 60% Pass rate including lurkers, etc 90% Pass rate for regular posters and contributors

PASS mo fo. i think we’re going to have a strong showing this year. 80% with ALL repeater regulars passing.

I will pass this test. I give AF a 75-80% pass rate this year.

If I don’t f’n pass I’m getting a job at Arby’s. Beef 'N Cheddars all around. North of 80% for Af’ers…

73% is my guess. I think I’ll pass.

I’ll Pass…If they ask the questions I know… 80% AF’s Pass

I will pass…pass rate will be 70%

i’m a regular lurker…with my posts increasing towards the exam date… PASS 80%

Pass 80% AF

pass 95% for regulars

Pass 80% AF pass rate

Pass - 95% for the regulars

This is not a pledge - purely a guess at this point: Pass - 90% for the regulars

PASS 90% AF pass rate I don’t post much but have a lot confidence in everyone on this board. I want to say the pass rate for those of us on AF who took Level I in DEC 2007 was pretty high. You don’t have to post/contribute a lot in order to get a lot out of this board. Reading everyone’s questions, responses, etc has been a tremendous help. Plus a little positive thinking never hurts.

P - 70%

90 for regs, by the way you will have to do name matching to ensure people don’t come back and say pass that didn’t ‘register’ on this thread, also, if people don’t return to post pass, I think its safe to assume they failed which would great a conservative estimate and eliminate any upward survivorship bias.

In order to pass I’ll need to be at my best. I give myself about a 50% chance of passing. I suspect something like 70% of AF regulars will pass.

Although I will probably be somewhere in a hot country when the results come out so if I’m not on the thread - don’t assume I failed.

not even entertaining thoughts of failing. 80%