Before scrolling I thought of what seems to be the general consensus: pass - 80%

Absolutely PASS AF Success Rate: Regulars - 85% Others - 60%

Fair Chance of a Pass AF Success : 73%

My gut is never wrong: I will FAIL AF Success (Regular’s): 95%

Pass I say 85% of regulars and 55% of others.

dinesh my Indian brother, if you fail, we are all fuct…

dinesh.sundrani Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > My gut is never wrong: I will FAIL > > AF Success (Regular’s): 95% Dude, c’mon. I would never give myself a 100% at passing…but I will never ever say Fail. You’re better than that Dinesh. I have a gut feeling that you are passing bro

Dude, you were only supposed to reply ONCE. **for 3_Letters

Pass - 93%

We have our own rules

Don’t we need to define “the regulars”? Everyone will pass. 100%

3_letters, jalmy8: Probably becase I am on my all time low spirits. Once I get the studying done this week and things start to flow back in. I might have to *repost* here and change that FAIL to BORDERLINED. Sorry FXjunkie, to break your rules.

no worries Dinesh - thanks for your honesty on post (first person to predict a fail!) but am sure your issue is one of confidence rather than knowledge or ability. Get your head down - there’s plenty of time. Smarshy, defining “the regulars” is a bit of a grey area - simply going on number of posts is very crude, and what is the hurdle for being a regular?? 200 posts? 500 posts? 1000+ posts? this is also, by definition, not a good qualitative indicator of what should constitute a valuable regular - this can turn into a long debate in itself. also does not distinguish between regular posters and lurkers. I think it will be easier to keep it simple to estimate % of AFers to pass as I want to capture benefit of AF to all of those that use it - regardless of being a “regular” or not. Also, for purpose of collating results/ratio of passes and reducing survivorship bias of responses in August, I like Black Swan’s idea of assuming those that do not reply with their result as failing. I will allow 7 days after results are released for everyone to post their result. Finally, we need a critical mass of responses for this to be insightful (at least 100 I reckon) so for those that haven’t pls post your predicitions!

FAIL (but then again I am a bit of a lurker) For the regulars, I estimate 95% pass rate.

dinesh you will never fail… for me 40% possibility pass, 60% possibility fail AF 80% will pass.

AF 70% pass

I will say pass…and i will say AF Regulars 85% and AF “others” (i’m in that category…“lurkers” sounds so evil) 60%. Here are my qualifiers: The AF regulars are in my opinion ALL in the comfortable zone…you guys know your stuff, have put in the required time, and should all pass. But, i lower it to 85% as there are some factors that will trip up anyone on any given day, no matter how prepared (poor mix of questions versus an individuals personal area of strength, poor exam taking abilities, poor time management, got a lousy nights sleep, who knows). But you guys are stars and have a huge advantage over the field. The “others” (myself included) have given ourselves a REASONABLE shot at success, but are probably counting on the next seven days to get into game mode…it sounds like there are varying degrees of knowledge and ability among the posters on this forum - but even in seven days it would be hard to get to the level of knowledge of the regulars. But, I would argue, we collectively seem to have an advantage over the entire CFA taking field where the pass rate is gonna be 40% or so. Obviously we also will have some people that are prepared but succumb to exam missteps as well.

PASS hopefully. AF Rate - option call value 80% volatility 20%

PASSS…hmm just saying that makes me feel better!!! AF Rate Regulars - 90% Others: Readers of posts - 75% Purely Lurkers - 60%

as a long time lurker… Borderline leaning to PASS and AF Rate should be decent – 75%