Borderline guys (High 50s/low 60s mocks)...can we make it?

I did two mocks. 55 and 64. Not ideal. Then em again I found the real thing to be (slightly) easier than either mock I took.

All my borderline guys scoring similarly: What do you think your chances are? I think I have a 1/4 shot of passing.

How many questions did you have to guess? Just think about it this way. If that number was less than 40 then you’ll probably pass. That’s only if you’re sure you got the other 80 questions absolutely correct.

here is what I think my breakdown was:

I think I fully KNEW 30 questions: so expected value of 30 correct

I made BLIND guesses on maybe 20 of them: so expected value of 7 correct

The remaning 70 questions, I was some varying degree of sure/unsure but at least able to cross off one answer: so expected value of 35 correct.

Thats a pretty conservative estimate of how I did, to be honest I think I “knew” more than 30, espectially in the qualitative afternoon section where my lack of formula memorization actually played to my advantage. I found the PM to be pretty good…but I want to be on the side of caution. that puts me at a 72/120 which is not a pass. I am 5 off of the pass rate, assuming its 77/120 which I cant see it being more than that from what I hear about the progtam from previous candidates.

Where am I getting those extra 5 correct from? I guess what it comes down to is Ethics and Guess-Luck. which is not where I want to be, but given my mock scores I think I am in the fat part of the curve, which is Band 9/10/low pass.

Add a +5% adjustment for being a regular on these forums, and you pass! I’m being semi-serious - the fact that you’re actively on these forums greatly improves your chances of success, based on empirical evidence.

haha im on this forum because i want people to give it to me harsh. people here tend to be pretty unforgiving and insightful which i think is ideal when youre trying to assess your chances.

… which is why you get the +5% adjustment! Good luck! :slight_smile:

I think i am on the same boat as you. Have tried to do the math from different angles and am arriving at 70, which I know won’t be enough. If my guess success ratio is +30%, I may get close to the 80 mark. I am also worried about individual topics, definitely feel I will be below 50 in one… and borderline 50 in another, rest I am fairly sure will be higher than 50

I’m want to be optimistic but also reasonable. 90% probability of failing, 10% passing.

Years ago, I passed the bar, which has an even longer wait time than the CFA (and really devestating career consequences if you don’t pass it the first time). A lot of associates I knew spent their Fall rehashing questions and formulating what they could have done better and trying to estimate the probability of whether or not they passed. By the time the results came back, half of them seemed like they had the shakes or PTSD or some sort of anxiety disorder. It literally consumed their days worrying about the parade of horribles that was about to befall them and made them less productive and effective in their careers and their lives. And what did they get for all that worry and emotional investment?

My advice to you (which is worth exactly what you paid for it), is to chill out, enjoy the summer, and let whatever’s gonna happen in August go ahead and happen. If you are convinced you failed and want to start a course of study for December early, go for it, but hand-wringing and sleepless nights aren’t going help improve your score even a little.

That said, good luck. I’m sure things will turn out as they should whatever happens.

This post should be made a banner across the face of this forum to fend off delinquents armed with implicit post-exam day probing questions…

lol… i love these guys… worry too much… what will be will definitely be, so calm down and wait for the result.

Too much this. I keep running around the park by my house and saying to myself that if I don’t pass the slow people ahead of me then I will have failed.

Completely irrational, but my abs look better.


Don’t follow how you need to be 100% confident on 80.

If MPS is 75 (raw #), the theoretical path to passing is a perfect score on 53, and random guessing on 67. Obviously, random guessing won’t be exactly 1/3, but it would be hard to get 0/67 by guessing.

You can adjust that. I think if you had no clue on 67 you’re not going to be 100% confident on 53.

if the MPS ends up being 75/120 which is a 62.5% then for some reason I just like my chances alot more…

I feel its 77 though, just from what I have heard.

CEO–Thank goodness it’s warm enough to run outside again. I could have used the stress relief in my studies.

Great speech. Thanks

I managed to do 4 mocks, ranging from 55-65%, and on the exam, felt like 35 Q’s 100% sure, 70 educated guess, and about 15 pure guess. Weighting this spread by 100-50-20% puts me at 35+35+3=73, about a Band 9-10 fail. I may have done well on Ethics though as I studied that pretty hard, so maybe I can get over the hump if I got 10/12 of those points. Will be interesting to see if this projection holds out.

46 days left to the results date. Between now and then , please just relax…

The only difference is the pass rates on the bar exams are usually in the 80% range!!! A lot different than 45%!!! j/k. This is actually good advice - since last saturday I haven’t really thought about it - maybe once or twice but I’m not wasting my time trying to calculate my score or even worse the MPS. I already bubbled in my answers and handed in my test - what happens from here is out of my control.

I have spent the last 6 months or so watching all my friends go out on the weekends and enjoy the great weather outside while I was locked in my room studying. I have too much life to live and sleep to catch up on to spend my summer worrying about this.

I never scored higher than 60 in any of the three or four mocks I did for L2 (can’t remember specifically).

I did pass it on first attempt last year, so, yeah, it’s possible.

My strategy was to do all the CFA topic tests over and over, and master the highest weighted sections: FRA, Equity, Ethics, FI. That alone is like 60-70% of the test.

In the end my matrix was >70 in FRA, Equity, Ethics, FI, 50-70 Econ and Corp Fin., then <50 every other subject. Even though I failed 4 areas due to smart prioritizing I passed.

this is for sure a passing score fwiw if your assessment of numbers is right.