Was reading on Bloomberg that David Rosenburg thinks the economy will start to rebound in October of this year while Roubini sees the S&P off another 27% from HERE. That’s just madness…27% is like what 550? Willy
Jim Grant says the bottom will be when the customers stop asking when the bottom is.
It just blows my mind how bad this thing is. I mean I could start moving clients to 30% cash today and still SAVE them money come Q4. Willy
Bottom has meaning for cyclical events, not structural, permanent adjustments i.e. reality check. The real question is what are we really worth?
Stocks will rebound sooner than, right? 5-6 months earlier? Are we all timing this market?
Was talking to the resident nerd at my office. He keeps saying it’ll take 20 years for the S&P to get back to the 1,500s. Willy
that’s 4% compounded for 1500 in 20 years… UST don’t look too bad if that is the case.
WillyR Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Was talking to the resident nerd at my office. He > keeps saying it’ll take 20 years for the S&P to > get back to the 1,500s. > > Willy I believe we’ll be back above 1500 in 5 years time. Either the market substantially corrects and recovers or double digit inflation runs its course.
I don’t even know what to think anymore. Willy
I don’t even know what to think anymore. Willy
Yeah this is bad.
corporate bonds my friends, corporate bonds
Well the only conservative bottom that you can give is zero. I can assure you all that it will not drop below that point. Seriously though, I agree with needhelp. The market will eventually recover, whether it is next month or next year, or in the next decade. Be conservative, but put money into company’s you believe to be strong financially enough to ride out the storm, and you’ll make good returns if your time horizon is long enough.
I’ve been investing clients in corporate bonds for a while now. The component of their portfolios allocated to fixed income is fine…it’s the equities that I’m worrying about. On a 10 year basis, bonds are now the top performing asset class, t-bills are 2nd and equities are last. I mean this IS the lost decade. Willy
stick to buying quality companies and the in long run things should be fine. unless you’re a long only short term trader, this environment shouldn’t bother ppl. the only thing that should be worrying is greater government intervention.
“unless you’re a long only short term trader, this environment shouldn’t bother ppl.” It bothers me…quite a bit actually.
Turkish, why does it bother you? the good businesses are still good businesses. if you bought say RBC or TD for your retirement, why are you worried?
This is starting to look like a pretty nice call in the short term.
“if you bought say RBC or TD for your retirement, why are you worried?” i like performance bonuses…