I know I’m going to get a lot of responses laughing at the idea of touching domestic auto industry stock right now, but here’s a simple idea, what do you think? Ford’s price has completely crashed, and it just doesn’t seem possible that the gov’t will let our auto companies fail without trying to lend them some bailout cash. GM is about to go into bankruptcy, so I would think they’ll get gov’t assistance, and it’s hard to imagine they’d help GM while leaving Ford out to dry. Just how likely is it that Ford will receive some bailout money in a few weeks? Assuming they do receive some, won’t their stock almost certainly shoot up after the news breaks? Is this a safer investment than it initially seems?
Found On Road Dead might finally live up to its name - I don’t know if I would take the risk.
quick swing trade? sure
depends on if they can turn it around with the bailout money. If not, its going to zero my friend. Also depends on terms of govt “loan”, you look at AIG who are now 80% owned by the govt, and their stock didnt shoot up anywhere that I know of. In the best case scenario a loan/bailout would make the stock go popping up, in the worst case scenario it would wipe you out. It is interesting to maybe pickup a few shares to speculate on, but I wouldnt be expecting a bump. UYG(the financials double etf) went from like 18 down to 4 from the time the bailout was announced til now…
This is a puny plan. You should stay away.
- Any loan is going to come attached with warrants/shares which will massively dilute existing shareholders 2. The loan comes ahead of shareholders 3. There is still no guarantee, even after the loan is made, that this business is a going concern…i.e. they are just delaying the inevitable. Based on the above, there is way too much downside risk to be long
So much for the puny plan…Ford was about 1.25 back when I posted this, now it’s close to 3. And I didn’t buy in. Depressing.
It’s still a puny plan.
What a puny plan. Just walk away. Lines from a very fitting movie, considering the subject company.
frisian Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > What a puny plan. Just walk away. > > > Lines from a very fitting movie, considering the > subject company. Did you know that the last of the V-8 Interceptors was a 1973 Ford Falcon XB?
at least he’s buying ford and not gm. ford actually has a fighting chance… of the 3 at least.
Ford does own a diverse blend of lines: volvo, mazda, jag, land rover, and aston martin not including lincoln and mercury. Ford should definitely axe the mercury line.
I actually don’t think so - although it is in the best shape of the group. I think we are going to get some small bailout here - $20B for all three - which will help for a few months. However, I don’t see any way that the burn rate turns around anytime soon almost regardless of what they do. They could come out with the finest cars in the world at dirt cheap prices and people just don’t buy cars in economic downturns like this. If GM and Chrysler both go under, their cars will be really cheap. That puts Ford in a 0 sales position…
Chuckrox8 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Ford does own a diverse blend of lines: volvo, > mazda, jag, land rover, and aston martin not > including lincoln and mercury. Ford should > definitely axe the mercury line. Except that mercury model in TV ads is The hottest woman on planet earth.
she is probably the only good decision they made in years… I think your money is safer on the jets -4 this sunday than ford turning into a profitable business in the next 5-10 years.
interesting. i guess i haven’t thought of the liquidation of dealership inventory’s effect on other cars. maybe ford could see a private investor more than anyone…? kerkoran got out around of a 6% position at $5 right? if he can buy back with the same money, he’s up to a 36% position should that situation show up as Ford would at most trade at $1, he could probably pick up the whole company for $2 billion. The Focus, Mustang and F150 are good brands and I’m sure there are some billionaire car buffs out there who would be willing to throw some money at owning history. Now Cerberus with Chrysler was just a horrible bet… do they even have any brands that anyone buys? I cant’ think of one.
Chuckrox8 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Ford does own a diverse blend of lines: volvo, > mazda, jag, land rover, and aston martin not > including lincoln and mercury. Ford should > definitely axe the mercury line. jag and land rover were sold to Tata. Aston was gone before those two were dealt. Yesterday’s WSJ mentioned the possible sale of Volvo, which would leave you with Ford, Mazda, Lincoln and the redundant mercury. Not exactly an all-star line up
So does anyone know what may happen to their pension plans if they are wiped out>?
According to this objective bar chart with a clearly defined Y (and X) axis, Ford’s quality is going up… http://www.fordvehicles.com/thefordstory/