CFA Level 3 - MPS Estimate

So a time consuming AM with moderate difficulty and tough PM. What do you guys think would be the MPS this time?

I have found this article in

As per the article,

[q]You have a greater probability of passing than failing if

=0.563(AM Score) +0.827*(PM Score) – 86.84 >= 0 [/q]

Which effectively means a 63% would take you home. This is for the past exams though.

I know it’s useless, but I put my score prediction in there:

AM: 52%, PM 70% = Pass

It’s very unstable at the decision point with greatly varying degrees of confidence. I don’t know, I think maybe I just am being hard of myself for thinking that I failed. Though I was not thrilled with not being able to give the last part of AM 100% effort.

my estimated score is very similar to urs

AM - 32/60 (It was my avg. mock score, never got above 38 in Mock AMs -> actual exam experience was similiar

PM - 43/60

MPS guess using shrinkage estimator is

( 0.25*68%) + (0.75*64%) = ~65%

considering the fact that,

  1. AM was only moderately difficult

  2. PM was also not that difficult

  3. Overall MPS should be on a higher side, compared to prev. years


I think the total amount required to pass the exam should be around 240 out of 360 - 66.67% I believe the MPS could be less than this score

AM need to hit 120

PM need to hit 120 - 40 questions right

I believe AM was lot easier but lengthy

PM was tricky. But there were lot of straightforward question.

50% in the AM and 65% in the PM

66% cumulative

Can you people go back to debating this most important question? :slight_smile:

Average MPS is suppose to be around 62-63% I think. Can we expect the same thing this year? Overall this was not a relatively easy exam right?

I personally thought the MPS was higher… like 65 at minimum but around 67 to 69.

Compared to previous AM exams, I thought this year’s AM wasn’t any more or less difficult. Just about the same.

The PM had a lot of “gimme” questions, but I don’t have previous year’s exams to compare to. I would say the PM was definitely easier than the mock exams that CFAI made available.

Based on the above, I would say MPS would probably be at 68. Just my two cents.

The MPS can go as low as 50%

Read this:

A MPS at 68% would mean this was one of the easiest L3 exam ever. That does not seem to be the case.

someone posted a matrix last year which had a max of 68.

Surprising that MPS can be as low as 50 and I doubt it is that low (as the article also agrees that its likely low to mid 60s). Unless you are working for the institute setting the MPS, you can’t say you truly know what the MPS is… it’s all just estimation based on the scoring matrix.

Either way, my personal take is that this exam, relative to other AM mocks and sample item set questions, was not any more difficult, and overall may have been on the easy side. So, I will standby my comment that MPS should be on the higher end. Maybe its 66 instead of 68 based on the 300hours article.

The MPS changes every year. People actually think it’s a magical number?

I did horrible last year and still got Band 10 so I think a lot of peeps overestimate the MPS for L3. I bet the actual number is lower than you’d think. Probably around 60% or so.

I honestly guessed on almost everything in 2015 and was Band 10.

Lots less guessing this year so am cautiously optimistic.

It is possible you got band 6 but are embarassed to tell us?

I mean its possible you guessed on everything, but is it possible to guess on everything and get a band 10?

What about people who studied soo hard and got a band 9? It just doesn’t make sense.

65 for both morning and afternoon!

Perhaps ‘guessing’ is not the right word but…there were just very few questions in 2015 that I was 100% certain I’d gotten correct. A lot of 50/50 questions and such. Not literal guessing so misstatement on my part.

Based on the calculation in the first post I would say I am a 50/50 to pass.

Mps and pass rates change each year. Hell the pass rate has been over 75% before. Not much use guessing this stuff.