CFA Level 3 - MPS Estimate

CFA Level III
#21

I thought the whole thing was pretty easy. Only thing I messed up on AM was time management … had to rush the last two questions. Other than that, no biggue.

#22

For the 2015 CFA exam, there was a score posted by a candidate (Galli) that had this score (see below). Basically, what I did was take the best case scenario to determine what his raw score was to get a sense of the MPS that year.

Assumptions for the AM:

<50 - assumed 49% (rounded down the raw score)

50-70 - assumed 69% (rounded down the raw score)

>70 - assumed 100% (no rounding required)

Assumptions for the PM:

<50 - assumed 2/6

50-70 assumed 4/6

>70 - assumed 6/6

In the AM, the best case scenario for this candidate (Galli) was 110/180 (61%) and in the PM, it was 36/60 (or 108/180 = 60%). In other words, the raw score was 60.5%.

Of course, it goes without saying that each year has different nuances but from what I’ve read from repeat L3 takers, this year’s exam was at least on par (if not more difficult) than last year’s exam so, it may stand to reason that perhaps an MPS of 60.5% might not be too far-fetched?

Anyways, just trying to make myself feel better b/c I’m almost certain my overall score will be somewhere in that ballpark.

The score can be found here: http://www.analystforum.com/forums/cfa-forums/cfa-level-iii-forum/91344605?page=2

I PASSED!!

Looks marginally, but i’ll take it!!!

Essay

Q# Topic Max Pts <=50% 51%-70% >70%

1 Portfolio Management - Institutional 14 - * -

2 Portfolio Management - Institutional 17 * - -

3 Fixed Income Investments 19 * - -

4 Alternative Investments 20 - * -

5 Portfolio Management - Performance Eval. 15 - * -

6 Portfolio Management - Risk Management 14 - - *

7 Portfolio Management - Individual 18 * - -

8 Portfolio Management - Individual 16 - * -

9 Portfolio Management - Asset Allocation 15 * - -

10 Economics 14 - * -

11 Portfolio Management - Indiv/Behavioral 18 - * -

Item Set

Q# Topic Max Pts <=50% 51%-70% >70%

  • Economics 18 - - *

  • Equity Investments 18 - * -

  • Ethical & Professional Standards 36 - * -

  • Fixed Income Investments 18 - - *

  • Portfolio Management 18 * - -

  • Portfolio Management - Individual 18 - - *

  • Portfolio Management - Monitor&Rebalance 18 - * -

  • Portfolio Management - Risk Management 36 - * -

#23

I think you did the PM wrong, rough eyeball looks like max is defo higher than 61%

#24

You’re right Laguna - I completely undercounted Ethics and Risk management sections. It should be 44/60 (73%). So overall looks like ~67%.

I’m screwed. haha

#25

Not to worry, there are a lot of ugly scores on this forum to draw inspiration from. Failing 4-5 AM sections with a mediocre PM seems to be getting it done for a lot people.

#26

The 2015 scores have me rubbing my hands like Baby!

http://gph.is/OIYroY

#27

MPS raw score 58% - adjusted 63%

#28

This is amazing. He bombed 7/11 in the AM, but killed it in the PM. From other 2015 scores it appears you can bomb 7-8 questions/vignettes and make it. Of course, they had more questions. I think many prepare for the AM and treat PM as an afterthought, but PM may offer the best Sharpe ratio (test alpha to study risk) to use CFAI vernacular.

#29

this could be the reason why CFAI made little twisted PM this time… i think they will focus at passing score with better balance this time… easy pm is preferred by many of us, including me.

#30

I found PM easy. Finished in an hour and a half, reworked every question, and spent the last 30 minutes angry the CFAI dosen’t let exam-takers out early.

I used Kaplan’s QBank and I thought it was wasted money, but I now think it helped me in the PM. I had a lot of similar Qs to Kaplan’s Qbank.

#31

I don’t see the above as a bomb. On the am, it shows half above 70 and half below 50 averaging about 60. (Notice the first am which is usually high points above 70?) If the pm was 75, then that is still a 67.5 average. Def not a low score.

#32

A general rule of thumb, which seemed to ring true in 2015 with all the results I saw, is that you have to have 6 or more sections overall that you are 70% or above on.

Every score I saw that had 6 or more “A’s” (as some call them) were a pass. Every score I saw that had 5 or few “A’s” were a fail.

As an example, I had 5 “A’s” and was a Band 10 failure.

#33

^yeah but the controversy is if you actually need to get 5/6 or better on an item set to get marked >70%… its possible you actually got 4/6 but CFA includes some adjustment

#34

on CFA 1 I got only 3 above 70%, 5 between 50% and 70% and 2 < 50%… approved

#35

I’m talking TOTAL L3 categories here and counting both AM and PM. So, there are something like 19 total categories on L3 whereas only 10 total categories on L1 and L2. Thus, the ‘heuristic’ (like that one?) that I’m using would not work for L1 and L2.

I’m jus sayin…that I did not see a SINGLE pass from 2015 on L3 that had less than 6 “A’s”.

#36

I think you overestimate the MPS at L3. I can’t prove you wrong but had 3 “A’s” and band 10 retaker. So 4 A’s could have done it for me and if not defnitely 5. Doesn’t really matter, every result is different and the CFAI provides little information enough so we are left in the dark!

Best of luck

Essay

Q# Topic Max Pts <=50% 51%-70% >70%

1 Portfolio Management - Institutional 14 * - -

2 Portfolio Management – Institutional 17 - * -

3 Fixed Income Investments 19 - * -

4 Alternative Investments 20 - * -

5 Portfolio Management - Performance Eval. 15 * - -

6 Portfolio Management - Risk Management 14 - * -

7 Portfolio Management - Individual 18 * - -

8 Portfolio Management - Individual 16 * - -

9 Portfolio Management - Asset Allocation 15 * - -

10 Economics 14 * - -

11 Portfolio Management - Indiv/Behavioral 18 * - -

Item Set

Q# Topic Max Pts <=50% 51%-70% >70%

  • Economics 18 - - *

  • Equity Investments 18 * - -

  • Ethical & Professional Standards 36 - * -

  • Fixed Income Investments 18 - * -

  • Portfolio Management 18 - * -

  • Portfolio Management – Individual 18 * - -

  • Portfolio Management - Monitor&Rebalance 18 - - *

  • Portfolio Management - Risk Management 36 - - *

We have divided the group of candidates who did not pass into 10 approximately equal score bands. Your score band below shows how your overall score on the exam compares with the overall scores of candidates who did not pass this exam. For example, a score band of 1 indicates performance in the bottom 10%, a score band of 10 indicates performance in the top 10%.

Your score band: 10

#37

I dont think its just A’s that matters, we need to look at B and C 's as well… See below Band 10 from 2015.

8 As , 4 Bs and 7 Cs

http://www.analystforum.com/forums/cfa-forums/cfa-level-iii-forum/91344814

BAND 10 FAIL

Essay Q# Topic Max Pts <=50% 51%-70% >70% 1 Portfolio Management - Institutional 14 - - * 2 Portfolio Management - Institutional 17 - * - 3 Fixed Income Investments 19 * - - 4 Alternative Investments 20 * - - 5 Portfolio Management - Performance Eval. 15 - - * 6 Portfolio Management - Risk Management 14 - * - 7 Portfolio Management - Individual 18 * - - 8 Portfolio Management - Individual 16 * - - 9 Portfolio Management - Asset Allocation 15 * - - 10 Economics 14 * - - 11 Portfolio Management - Indiv/Behavioral 18 - * -

Item Set Q# Topic Max Pts <=50% 51%-70% >70% - Economics 18 - - * - Equity Investments 18 - - * - Ethical & Professional Standards 36 * - - - Fixed Income Investments 18 - - * - Portfolio Management 18 - * - - Portfolio Management - Individual 18 - - * - Portfolio Management - Monitor&Rebalance 18 - - * - Portfolio Management - Risk Management 36 - - *

#38

^^ this one is tough… im playing around with the numbers in excel and its HARD to get below 65%

#39

Perhaps the so-called “ethics adjustment” applied here…ethics <=50…

#40

You mis-read that persons post. They passed in 2015 with the scores you cited. They were just explaining that they believe they barely passed so jokingly referred to it as a Band 11 pass.