China and India: You pick the dragon or the tiger?

Looking back the past 20 years, China has been leading the “race”. Just cite one key indicator: In the early 90s, the per capita GDP of both countries were about the same. Now, India’s per capital GDP is about 40% that of China (Source: World Bank, on a PPP basis). If you’ve been to both countries, you would have also noticed the big difference between the infrastructures between the two. So, looking forward to the next 20 years, can China continue to dominate? Or India, the largest democracy and with a western style judicial system, will catch up and overtake China? Which one do you think will win the race? And Why?

I think the biggest advatage Indians have is they have marketed themselves well to the rest of the world. I think Indians are not as good at IT etc as the world think them to be but they have successfully created an image. Chinese suffer from and will continue to suffer from a poor image. China is perceived as a close society while india an open society. so I think in india might overtake china temporarily in the next 20-30 years until the world realizes that indians dont know as much about compters as they say they do.

India - because of the fact that it has more room to grow than China.

As somewhat of an aside, it seems like every time I have a tech support question, I get outsourced to a technician in India. There’s no problem with that, but the one thing that really trips me out is that I’ll be speaking with guys named Billy, Trevor, Roger, or some other classic American name. I thought it was sort of interesting because none of these guys sounded like they were from around here. I brought this topic up with one of my colleagues who is of Indian descent, and he made it sound like it was commonplace for these overseas tech personnel to adopt more Westernized names just because they thought it would help them “fit in” with the American consumer. The concept just seems funny to me. On one hand, I admire those folks overseas who are willing to go the extra mile in trying to please the American customer. But frankly, it makes no difference to me whether your name is Anand or Andy, or Praveen or Peter. I just want to know whether or not you can help fix my computer.

I gotta go with India too. If you look at it from a purely economic perspective, China is running a trade surplus with Europe/US, and a deficit with S.E. Asia. If Eur/US slow, then there is a possibility that China tips into recession as well. I undertand that China as ~$2Till in FX reserves, but you can’t feed/employ/house 1.3B people and continue to provide for job growth with a recession. $2Trill doesn’t buy you much anymore. From what I understand, although India is still a planned economy, they are in a much better position from the standpoint of global trade, not as reliant on one customer, al la China.

I’ll bet those numbers have changed and will continue to change significantly due to China’s high inflation (since it’s quoting per capita GDP based on PPP). Also, China relies so heavily on manufacturing that they are much affected by the dowtnturn in global demand. I think India has the right idea in that it is trying to capture the higher wage jobs, but do it at a lower price than the global marketplace can

I’ll bet those numbers have changed and will continue to change significantly due to China’s high inflation (since it’s quoting per capita GDP based on PPP). Also, China relies so heavily on manufacturing that they are much affected by the dowtnturn in global demand. I think India has the right idea in that it is trying to capture the higher wage jobs, but do it at a lower price than the global marketplace can

Dragon - the class structure in India is ridged, and less likely to embrace capitalistic tendencies. China, on the other hand, while ridged politically, is more open and business friendly–pointing to tax rates and eager consumers.

china. anyday, please. all your indians on the board, put your willies back in the knickers. india is an ossified classist society, with a million mutinies everyday. they don’t even have a unified script, let alone language. people don’t trust anyone outside their clan - its a tribalist culture. no charitable giving culture - its either paternalistic giving from upper classes to lower classes with no intention of ultimate equality, or giving to useless religious causes which will see results when the world meets its Maker in 100 zimbabwillion years. the democracy is built on class and region based multitude of parties with no agenda other than grabbing power and making as much money as possible before losing it. the religion needs a renaissance where modernism and science is embraced like europe when it came out of the dark ages. sheer magnitude of population pressure overwhelms any infrastructural initiative before its even finished. everytime the top class in government gets educated, they are pushed aside by another wave of illiterate villagers who want to run the country, resulting in short organizational memory. what freakin golden age are you talking about - first india needs a bronze age. btw, i am indian, spent half my life there drinking the kool aid, and other half here, waking up to see my nation and where it truly is in its journey through time. it was tough coming out of denial, but i know our place in the world now. thats the first step to changing things. now, there will be a bunch of twits who jump on this, and prove their manhood by defending their culture. two words for them - wake up. another two - bite me.

I would say India. They hot a lot going for them: that hot new porno skank Priya Rai [wow what a fox] and that monster wrestler the “great” khali in the WWE. Willy

@numi The reason they take western names is to make the average american consumer more comfortable while talking to them…not to ‘fit in’. I have a few friends who work in call centres and have heard enough stories about them being abused over the phone for sounding Indian… so i guess the name change is only to reduce the ‘negative feelings’ felt by the average american consumer. (and given that you have no issues with who you are talking to…you probably are not the average american consumer) @the guy who said Indians don’t know as much about ‘compters’ as the world thinks they do… I think its naive to think that the rest of the world would not have caught on by now if there really was a great indian code trick. @rohufish you’ve spoken with your feet…all the best to you… just one thing to say to you…you may forget where you are from…but most other people wont.

I want to go with India, because I want to support a democratic polity there. However, India needs to get its transport infrastructure in place and expand into manufacturing. China’s manufacturing model is easier to scale up and expand into higher value prodcts. India can probably expand into higher value service industries, but some services just need to be local, and I’m not convinced that, even if they succeed in that, it may not be enough to spread wealth beyond a small elite.

I would think you want to be in both for the upside and diversification.

Anyone see the new porn star Priya Rai? Thats the first Indian chick I have seen in porn. Surprising, since Indian girls are very conservative and shy.

Syd_RE Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > …you may forget > where you are from…but most other people wont. its not a matter of ‘forgetting where you are from’. even if my innards were saffron, green, blue and white, it doesn’t change where india is today, and the huge roadblocks standing in its way relative to china. its a matter of calling a spade a spade, having your eyes wide open, and not being in denial.

rohufish, your posts are always so poetic!

I totally agree with Rohufish on this, all the points he has mentioned in the post are genuine. India is the biggest democracy but the politics here are too bad. The mentality of a normal Indian (I am not talking about the population which lives in metropolitan cities) has to change drastically and its not an easy process, it has not changed enough (though it has changed) in the past. Also, as vanz1212 has mentioned that China has a very strong manufacturing industry and India needs to develop the same, very true. But the point is its very difficult to develop those industries because of politics and democracy. Please read the articles related to Singur plant of Tata or those related to the refusal of the state govts. to allow Mittals to enter their respective states. Rohufish very corectly pointed that there is a lot of regionalism here. I don’t know about development but in population terms India will surpass China very soon. China controlled its population and is working hard towards development of the existing citizens. In India, that is not the case yet. Look at olympics, India set the record by having 3 medals this time, irrespective of the huge population. The winners were provided a lot of awards, but the money is not spent in developing infrastructure for sports or providing incentives to the sports person. Cricket on one side gets a lot of money and all other games are sidelined. There is something fundametally wrong here. I too want it to change but I am a bit pessimistic in that regard. btw am an Indian and currently living in India itself, however, am looking for better opportunities abroad.

rohufish Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Syd_RE Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > …you may forget > > where you are from…but most other people wont. > > its not a matter of ‘forgetting where you are > from’. even if my innards were saffron, green, > blue and white, it doesn’t change where india is > today, and the huge roadblocks standing in its way > relative to china. > > its a matter of calling a spade a spade, having > your eyes wide open, and not being in denial. Of course…India’s got heaps of roadblocks ahead…no one denies that it would be silly to say it is going to be smooth sailing… Honestly…I think the “India is f***ed up” card is the easiest one to play…anyone can point out a 100 things that are wrong about any country (India/China/even the ‘mighty’ US of A)… But I think there is value in being optimistic about India…the demographics are there…the policy will come, eventually… I also think the comparison to China is uncalled for…while both of them are emerging economies with large populations…thats where the similarity ends…they are two completely different societies with completely different regulatory regimes…

gauravku Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > The mentality of a normal Indian (I am not talking > about the population which lives in metropolitan > cities) has to change drastically and its not an > easy process, it has not changed enough (though it > has changed) in the past. I would say that it doesn’t matter if it’s metropolitan or rural, the mentality is almost the same.

Should India give up on democracy and become like China? You tow the party line or you are dead? Should India implement one-child policy? Unfortunately, India is paying the price of democracy combined with high levels of illiteracy. In addition, it is a very ancient culture with deep-rooted cultural practices that will only change slowly if no serious social dislocations are to be caused. And India does not need to be apologetic about its diversity or population - it is what it is. As material wealth builds up and the country enters more into industrial stage, the kinship affinity and tribalism will slowly dissipate away. In fact, the change has already started in the urban centers and it is a matter of time before it starts hitting the rural areas. That said, I don’t know how a country can remove corruption of the level that India has. Sometimes it feels like terminal cancer.