I have to go for China. India is too mired in bureaucracy, its trade unions are too powerful and its caste system doesn’t lend itself to a western meritocratic style economy.
Penfold says india: http://www.citywire.co.uk/professional/-/news/fund-news/content.aspx?ID=312441&re=3585&ea=1371
Syd_RE Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > But I think there is value in being optimistic > about India…the demographics are there…the > policy will come, eventually… > ‘eventually’ lol yeah, after all, hindus do believe in reincarnation…
Legend Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I have to go for China. India is too mired in > bureaucracy, its trade unions are too powerful and > its caste system doesn’t lend itself to a western > meritocratic style economy. The caste system crap is the biggest misconception the Western world has of India. That stuff is not there anymore. (At least not the in the Tier 1 and 2 cities) Who cares what happens in the remote villages and the stories you hear about a man killing another man of a lower caste. Just ask an average middle class Indian if he cares about it. If you belong to the lower caste and want a professional job in Mumbai no one will stop you as long as you are competent enough to fulfill the responsibilities.
I suspect China is at higher risk for Black Swan type events. Authoritarian regimes generally look more stable than they really are. So I can see China outpacing India for a long time, and then WHACK, something really awful happens. Not that this couldn’t happen with India too, but democracies are often more resilient to shocks. The big political issue is the culture of corruption. China has this a bit too, but it seems to be more deeply ingrained in India. Corruption does undermine some of the advantages one attributes to a democratic system. Anyway, I’m rooting for India; I’m just not sure I’m ready to bet on it yet.
ZeroBonus Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > The caste system crap is the biggest misconception > the Western world has of India. That stuff is not > there anymore. (At least not the in the Tier 1 and > 2 cities) Who cares what happens in the remote > villages and the stories you hear about a man > killing another man of a lower caste. Just ask an > average middle class Indian if he cares about it. > > > If you belong to the lower caste and want a > professional job in Mumbai no one will stop you as > long as you are competent enough to fulfill the > responsibilities. ‘man in a bubble’ warning… or you are a plant from the foreign investment promotion board, or tourism board… ever opened a sunday paper to see the ‘matrimonials’ section of the best english newspapers, read by ‘educated middle classes’? how is it organized? by caste/community. this may seem a trivial point at first, but think of all the downstream implications for how society is organized, and favors made/exchanged. its massive. heard of mayawati, the hottest (umm…not in beauty terms) political leader in india right now? or been to a political rally - any party, anywhere? read about the reservation system? 50% of the seats are reserved quotas in india for the lower castes. do you think these quotas are ever going away? over their dead bodies, its an institutionalized reverse caste system - fully legalized by the government you pay taxes to. think about the implications. the egalitarianism movement (social revolution in france/russia/china, civil rights movement in US, etc.) just have not happened yet in india. its bubbling, but it has not been institutionalized and enshrined in rule of law. the reservation system itself perpetuates casteism (reverse). dude, snap out of it, its a dream.
For developing countries with the population size of China and India, I believe government policies play a key role in the early stage of their economic takeoff. Looking back the last 20 years. Here are the key characteristics of the two countries policy. China: Even though it’s a communist authoritarian country, its policy makers are more market oriented and have adopted a de facto capitalism. Talking to an average Chinese government official, you won’t hear the words communist, socialism, etc. You hear market mechanism or competition. Coupled that with a better defined property rights, the country productivity got a lift. That’s one of the main reasons why China has delivered an average 9% GDP growth rate for 2 decades. India: It’s a democracy for sure. At the same time, Indian government traditionally adopted a Fabian Socialism view that suppress competition in order to look after the mass poor population. The government put in layers of requirements of permits or licenses (the "“License Raj”). Several guys mentioned corruption earlier. These licenses or permits requirements give officials discretionary power, and discretionary power breeds the corruptions. The government also seems to discourage the formation of enterprise of 10 people or more, which dampen the economy of scale - a key element needed for the early stage of an economic takeoff. As a result, the GDP growth rate suffered. For years, the economists coined a term to described it - the “Hindu 3 percent”. To be fair, India’s GDP growth rate caught up to 7-9% in the past few years. Looking forward, which country will pull ahead, China or India? Why?
Okay, lot of things has already been said so far about India/China debate. But, here are my 2 cents. India (so called Tiger) Pros: 1) It is the largest democracy in the world which lends itself to certain advantages. Democracy enables Indian citizens to demand justice, rule of law, better opportunities, and most of all accountability from their government. As the Indian Nobel laureate, Amartya Sen succinctly put it; no democracy has ever suffered from famine. 2) Huge educated workforce which has good command of English. This has proved to be an amazing advantage for India over China especially in the IT industry. Indian IT companies like Infosys, TCS, Wipro etc have succeeded 90s onward because they had this huge workforce to tap into. 3) Even though some people (in this thread) have pointed out diversity of languages, culture, religion etc in India as a negative, I would actually consider this a positive for the country. These diversities in India enable it to sustain entrepreneurs (Azim Premji of Wipro fame and Mukesh and Anil Ambanis etc), come up with low-cost innovations (Pharmaceutical industry is an example) and basically function despite the stifling bureaucracy (which is mainly the product of the British Raj that ruled India till its Independence in the 1940s) Cons: 1) As has been mentioned before, contentious and corrupt political system is probably the biggest hindrance to India’s progress. Case in point, the current growth rate of India (which is a robust 6-8%), as opposed to anemic historical growth rate of 2-4% was achieved only when the country’s politicians decided to open up the economy in the early 1990’s. 2) Appalling state of the country’s infrastructure (including roads, airports, power generation etc) is also holding back the growth rate of the economy, according to some estimates, by around 1-2% per year. Case in point, companies in India have to invest huge sums of money on roads, reliable electricity etc to enable their workforce to just do their jobs (anyone who has visited the campuses of Wipro, TCS, IBM and other multinationals will attest to this) 3) Communal violence and contentious groups fighting for independence in various regions in India are another source of concern. Case in point will be Kashmir issue (which has flared up even more in recent weeks), independence movements in the North-eastern regions of India (Nagaland movement, Maoist insurgency in Bihar and JharKhand etc.) and the demand for a Tamil independent homeland which is mainly the spill-over from the Srilankan civil-war are all potentially serious problems for India to tackle. 4) Non-existent industrial base (unlike China) has also hampered India in its development. Though the IT industry gets a lot of play in West, it employs around 1-2 million Indians directly which for a country with a working population of 400-600 million is minuscule. India has to develop its industrial sector massively if it wants to reduce the absolute poverty level in any meaningful way (estimated 200-300 million Indians still live under $2 per day). China (so called Dragon) Pros: 1) Massive investments in infrastructure that China has made in the last couple of decades have already paid-off handsomely. Case in point, six times more FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) money flows to China every year compared to India (range of 60-80 Billion dollars for China and only 8-15 Billion for India). The pay-off of this improved infrastructure (you just have to visit Shanghai in recent years to see the difference) will continue in the future. 2) Efficient bureaucracy (compared to India) also enables comparatively rapid decision making regarding investments and big development related projects. Corruption is still endemic in China (but not in the scale of India’s according to many) but the often brutal punishment meted to those who are caught (recently the head of pharmaceutical licensing board was executed for corruption) does limit the extent of it. 3) Already far ahead in the growth front. China’s growth rate in the last couple of decades has averaged around 8-9% consistently which gives it a huge leg-up over India in this race. And, this seems set to continue for the near future as well. Cons: 1) Authoritarian political system. It has been noted by many that China can no-longer be called a communist country since the economy is now very close to being capitalist. But, the political system is very repressive of all dissent (recent examples will be Tibetan protest and how it was handled, millions of migrant labor being displaced to make way for the Olympics etc.) which dramatically increases the likelihood, as has been noted above in this thread, of a Black Swan event. This can cause a severe disruption in the steady growth rate that China has achieved (USSR in the late 80’s and early 90’s comes to mind) and might even set the country back massively (depending on how abrupt the change will be). 2) Lack of diversity in the education system and relative lack of English skills among the university graduates. China has already lagged behind India in the technology jobs (comparatively better paid than manufacturing) in the last decade and this severely hampers its attempts to move its labor force to more up-market jobs (which requires better communication abilities and global competitiveness). 3) Very jingoistic national sentiment among Chinese citizenry that is prone to lashing out at foreigners (and foreign companies) for perceived lack of respect for China and its people. Case in point will be recent boycotts by the Chinese citizen of French products (due to the pro-Tibetan protest during the Olympic torch relay passing through Paris), long held anti-Japanese prejudices (which flared last year) and myriad of other grievances that has been fostered by the government to keep itself in power. Overall, I think both countries have some very strong advantages in this race that will probably decide on who will be the next strong power in Asia (and I know Japan is still there but considering its faltering economy and diminishing political influence it is unlikely to maintain its top-dog status in Asia). And, I realize this has been a very long post (since this topic is near and dear to my heart), so feel free to comment/criticize my opinions. But lets keep this Debate going.
On a lighter note… are Indian or Chinese girls hotter? I go with Indian girls especially Bollywood babes mmmm…
I’ve never been with an Indian girl but have definitely seen some hotties. No complaints about Chinese chicks either…the good-looking ones can be really cute. I guess I’d consider myself an equal opportunity employer, so to speak.
Great post saj123, I agree wholeheartedly. Investment implication is that it makes sense to be diversified in asset allocation. China is a better bet in the short term, India might pull forward in the long term if corruption issues, infrastructure issues, and manufacturing base is better established, and if China undergoes a major Black Swan type event (famine in countryside, civil war, etc.)
Both countries have hot girls. They are just of different types. The truth is that female dragons and female tigers do bite… Back to the serious topic, one of the headaches both countries face is the high inflation of 12-13%. One puzzle about India is that on one hand, it produces the best thought leaders and software programmers in the world. Yet on the other hand, it also has the highest illiteracy population among all countries. Why is that?
rohufish Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > > ‘man in a bubble’ warning… > > or you are a plant from the foreign investment > promotion board, or tourism board… > > ever opened a sunday paper to see the > ‘matrimonials’ section of the best english > newspapers, read by ‘educated middle classes’? how > is it organized? by caste/community. this may seem > a trivial point at first, but think of all the > downstream implications for how society is > organized, and favors made/exchanged. its > massive. > > heard of mayawati, the hottest (umm…not in > beauty terms) political leader in india right now? > or been to a political rally - any party, > anywhere? > > read about the reservation system? 50% of the > seats are reserved quotas in india for the lower > castes. do you think these quotas are ever going > away? over their dead bodies, its an > institutionalized reverse caste system - fully > legalized by the government you pay taxes to. > think about the implications. > > the egalitarianism movement (social revolution in > france/russia/china, civil rights movement in US, > etc.) just have not happened yet in india. its > bubbling, but it has not been institutionalized > and enshrined in rule of law. the reservation > system itself perpetuates casteism (reverse). > > dude, snap out of it, its a dream. Dude, brahmins are supposed to be of the highest caste. Where the hell are they in the Indian political spectrum? The caste system only discriminates against untouchables - which are definitely not the group that is responsible for this recent growth. The key word is middle class. What does marriage have to do anything with economic growth? The dowry system is now limited only to the rural remote areas. Find me families in cities like Mumbai and New Delhi that still believe in the caste system, dowry, religion, crap. Seems like you need to snap out of the your dream and buy a plane ticket to India.
I would have to say China in agreement of all the points made above . India has tons of potential however they need to be able to embrace change a little more . As for Priya Rai I think she’s more american than Indian . She may “look” indian but that’s about it . Props to her for using that to her advantage .
zerobonus, i go there 4 times a year
ZeroBonus Wrote: > The dowry system is now limited > only to the rural remote areas. Find me families > in cities like Mumbai and New Delhi that still > believe in the caste system, dowry, religion, > crap. All these things are very much alive among the educated middle class in these cities.
rohufish Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > zerobonus, i go there 4 times a year dude I don’t know where you go. But I hear so many stories about a patel marrying a singh, a khanna marrying a jain, that it feels like the caste system drama has become pretty much nonexistent. May be I am wrong, but my whole argument about India doing better than China is that it has not grown as much as China in the past decade. Currently India is at a lower level than China and if we are assuming the two countries’ goals are to become equivalent to the US then India will come out ahead since it starts off lower. India can’t possibly go back to the 90s level because of the change in the mentality of the emerging generation. They do not think like their parents did. They are taking the bold steps to move out and live life on their own.
Let’s stick to the point of this question,which from a high level is Will Priya Rai become as prolific a porno star as Asia Carrera was? My guess is no. Asia was a legend but I think Priya opens the talent pool up a bit. I would also comment that Priya sounds like a bit of a retard in speech whereas Asia was, if memory serves me, a member of MENSA. As for the Wrestlers, I still think Triple H is the game although his multiple title reigns and sagging but cheeks are starting to portend a moderately overdue retirement that Great Khali guy is useful but he’s not got staying power. He’s just a 7 foot tall freak. I bet he’ll have a coronary soon or break some key bone and be side lined for months. Willy
WillyR = Cunt I propose a lifetime ban, anyone 2nd? WillyR Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Let’s stick to the point of this question,which > from a high level is Will Priya Rai become as > prolific a porno star as Asia Carrera was? My > guess is no. Asia was a legend but I think Priya > opens the talent pool up a bit. I would also > comment that Priya sounds like a bit of a retard > in speech whereas Asia was, if memory serves me, a > member of MENSA. As for the Wrestlers, I still > think Triple H is the game although his multiple > title reigns and sagging but cheeks are starting > to portend a moderately overdue retirement that > Great Khali guy is useful but he’s not got staying > power. He’s just a 7 foot tall freak. I bet he’ll > have a coronary soon or break some key bone and be > side lined for months. > > Willy
Artvandaley why don’t you make yourself useful and get me a coffee. I’m really craving one of those esspresso based bevies with the foamed milk on top. Nerd. Willy