…I predict, will be down between 200-300 points
All I know is I wouldn’t want to be around the equity market at all for the next little while. Bullish, or bearish~! The fed is presenting far too much interference! I like gold, oil, other commodities, short the dollar and long VIX.
based on what?? A wild guess? There is some bad news out…no doubt. But I think this mkt still has legs and will have a solid Q4. A lot of the shorts have yet to reverse their positions after last week. Hedgies need to play catch up. There are some solid sectors out there. Commodities are screaming. Commod shippers are playing along. Iron Ore producers were on fire yesterday. Chinese demand strong… I think we have a bad open but see some buyers come into the mkt. Thats the hope anyways.
"All I know is I wouldn’t want to be around the equity market at all for the next little while. Bullish, or bearish~! " So hali, you’re telling me you’re sitting 100% cash.
Turkish Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > "All I know is I wouldn’t want to be around the > equity market at all for the next little while. > Bullish, or bearish~! " > > So hali, you’re telling me you’re sitting 100% > cash. Not that I am agreeing with what he said, but there are asset classes other than equity…
based on what? It is not my job to read the news for you. Read the headlines and figure out which announcements/earnings/indicators are going to affect the markets…
“Not that I am agreeing with what he said, but there are asset classes other than equity…” Yup…and as I hit “post message” on that assinine comment, I thought the exact same thing.
Did I say something about rate cuts not being a bullish indicator at this point? I forget. Let me check the archives real quick.
I don’t think any halfway intelligent market participant viewed rate cuts now as a bullish indicator - rather a means of damage control and the Fed’s opinion of the health of the market…
Nothing to worry about. If the Dow falls 300 points I’m sure Helicopter Ben will fly in and cut rates another 25 bps. There’s no way he’s going to let investors take on risk and lose money.
drs Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I don’t think any halfway intelligent market > participant viewed rate cuts now as a bullish > indicator - rather a means of damage control and > the Fed’s opinion of the health of the market… Then why is the SPX still up +/- 50 points in the last month, and only a few % points off it’s all time high?
I doubt you’ll make a fortune being long stocks today, but I’m not sure today’s news will warrant 200-300 points. I guess we’ll see though…
Exactly. Because I believe many are making serious mistakes in their evaluation of the current market…
Turkish Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > "All I know is I wouldn’t want to be around the > equity market at all for the next little while. > Bullish, or bearish~! " > > So hali, you’re telling me you’re sitting 100% > cash. I wouldn’t be in to too much in terms of equity no. There are too many outside factors right now (ie the fed’s rate cuts). I’m fundamentally a bear, but if we see more rate cuts the market won’t be going down, unless we hit a recession of course, which is looking increasingly likely as well. All the same, I would rather be on the sidelines of the equity market right now as per above.
say what you will…im long the mkt and am up significantly today. There are plenty of sectors that are running. Drs…i can assure you ive done my homework. Dont question me. You are the one throwing out a wild guess based on absolutely nothing. How do you know how the mkt will react? Thats a bold claim to call a 200-300 pt decline without even seeing the open. Ill check back at the close.
fair enough. It looks like I will be wrong today and maybe tomorrow, but I am very bearish overall. I’m very surprised at all of the red flags that investors are overlooking…
drs Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > fair enough. It looks like I will be wrong today > and maybe tomorrow, but I am very bearish overall. > I’m very surprised at all of the red flags that > investors are overlooking… not trying to discredit you, but why do you think that investors are necessarily overlooking red flags? There may be some green flags that you’re overlooking that make up for the red ones… Not trying to turn this into an argument about where the market is going, just trying to keep this on a more philosophical level.
Valuation is subjective. There is much more to it than simply assigning a PE or some other metric. But if thats what gets you off…the SPX is historically undervalued given the fact it is trading at 15 x 08’s projected earnings. Not to mention the currency effect. So, relativelu speaking…if you are going to argue that the current mkt environment is overvalued…you have to look at histrical valuation. I am more of a technician…so I could really care less about what X analyst says or what the numbers say. All i know is that there are an aweful lot of charts that look outstanding. Im a buyer of this mkt-no doubt.
I think there is some evidence a lot of people felt they were caught on the wrong side of things after the fed eased 50 bips, and short-covering was a big part of the recent rally. I’m not a perma-bear like some on here, but if I was an equity guy my portfolio would probably be pretty defensive right now. I see more headwinds than tailwinds at the moment.
CFA_Halifax Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I like gold, oil, other commodities, short the > dollar and long VIX. i like things that have already gone up a lot too. it makes me feel smart.