Response to that hali?
I said I still like them. That’s my response. I really don’t know what is with some of these people to be honest.
Bad day…Tuesday is a tough one. Stuck between Monday and Wedesday…some people don’t know what to do with it. Myself, I hit industry night at Century Room and some other bars.
Long VIX? At 19? What is the reasoning there?
It doesn’t look like he’s going to be right, but you got to respect his actually making the call. CFA_Halifax is still winning my who makes the best calls competition with his corn call, but if the Dow dropped 300 pts today he would have mooved to second.
HoldSideAnalyst Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Long VIX? At 19? What is the reasoning there? Because what would the VIX have been in 1973 if there was such a thing as the VIX? 19 doesn’t seem all that high to me.
The VIX was nearly 40 just a few weeks ago. I see alot of volatility in markets plain and simple. I’d also like to be long CDS’ , and short merger arbs as well while we’re on this subject.
I thought the market would have responded more to the Consumer Confidence index and weaker than expected same store sales from target and lowes. Im really surprised
JoeyDVivre Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > HoldSideAnalyst Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > Long VIX? At 19? What is the reasoning there? > > Because what would the VIX have been in 1973 if > there was such a thing as the VIX? 19 doesn’t seem > all that high to me. 19 is roughly the long term VIX average, and slightly below the 10 year VIX average. Had a professional options trader tell me in early February that “Volatility is dead” when the VIX had been below 12 for an extended period. So while I don’t think it’s particularly high today, I just don’t see a profitable trading strategy with a good risk/reward profile today. And short merger arbs? Outside of a few deals that are in trouble this doesn’t look attractive at all. Just because you see big words in the Journal doesn’t mean you need to come repeat them here.
I think, to a certain extent, the market on whole, has already partially priced in many of the concerns being brought to light on this board. Its not a terrible shocker that the retail environment is weak right now. The media and their constant reference to the “R” word have surely caused the consumer to not spent that extra dollar or, to go into debt to buy that new pair of shoes. Yes oil recently hit $84. Yes the dollar is weak. Yes the credit mkts are tight. However, corporate earnings growth continues to be strong. Foreign demand is as strong as ever and…JoeyD and Chuck Norris are running for Supreme Court. Enough said.
I feel the same about the long CDS call. This doesn’t really make sense as I can’t even tell what you mean. Not trying to gang up on you, just curious what you mean? I assume you mean buying protection, which is a short credit risk position.
HoldSideAnalyst Wrote: > And short merger arbs? Outside of a few deals > that are in trouble this doesn’t look attractive > at all. Just because you see big words in the > Journal doesn’t mean you need to come repeat them > here. If LEND went through, then there aren’t a lot of MAC clauses that are going to hold on…
jbisback Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I think, to a certain extent, the market on whole, > has already partially priced in many of the > concerns being brought to light on this board. How do you figure?
Because its held its own despite the fact that oil is hitting new highs, dollar is hitting lows, etc etc etc. this isnt a one day event. Everyone could see oil climbing and everyone new the dollar was going to fall upon a cut. Question me all you want…but from where I am sitting…your call today was nearly as wrong as you could possibly be. Not only that …but we saw significant strength into the close. That being said…I’ll be back on before the bell tomorrow and i’ll give you my call. 9/25/07: Dow + 19.59
You feel that these factors are priced in, and I don’t. The announcements today didn’t end up being the catalyst that I expected, but such is life. I have no interest in guessing day to day market movements - my point was to emphasize things that I believe we will come to see in the near future. It didn’t happen today, but I believe it will soon enough. Well see down the line who is correct. Look forward to it.
And you can count, on me, waiting for, in the parking lot. Im not trying to bust your prick pal…well…I am a little. My point is, the mkt cannot be predicted. It is the collective action of millions of people and endless variables that drive the market. Its a living breathing entity. And your call was pretty severe. Ought to just play it safe and call it btwn down 30 and up 30 today. Would woulda been the AF BSD of the day. The sky isnt falling. Everytime we get a little bump in the road everyone thinks that the next bear market is starting. six months from now everyone will forget why traders and investors were so stressed. I sure will…cause ill be knee deep in my CFA studies.
HoldSideAnalyst Wrote: Just because you see big words in the > Journal doesn’t mean you need to come repeat them > here. ???
{there was an article in the WSJ and in Barrons yesterday that talked about outstanding deals that have yet to close. Decey deals include SLM, Harman -which looks to be done-and TRB. Positive comments on TXU, AT, HLT, CCY, HET} I think he is suggetsing you ripped off this article.
>Everyone could see oil climbing and everyone new the dollar was going to fall upon a cut. This sounds like classic comment that would be used in behavioral finance question on level III exam. “The candidate should be able to: a. explain how the illusions of knowledge and control lead expert forecasters to be overconfident in their forecasting skills;” That being said, I agree that it is bullish when mkt shrugs off bad news…if you are a trader. A question you should be asking, if you are an investor, is how many more bad news it can shrug off. But what do I know, eh?
I’m suggesting he’s popping off about a bunch of things he reads in the financial press and vaguely understands, but has no real substantive reasoning behind those calls. I mean seriously, long “CDS” (I think it’s a stretch at this point to call CDS an asset class)? Based on what? I hope you’re not trading on this stuff with OPM.