Election Predictions

What do y’all think? Wouldn’t surprise me one iota if Trump comes out on top here. If he does, it will probably be due to apathy and not support. Dems need to get out and vote, but I don’t see Biden creating that motivation.

If Trump does lose will he leave? Will the military take control of the White House? Oh the drama. Always loved a good ol US election. Really can’t believe it’s November already.

CLAIM: “it’s November already”


I’d say Biden. With Democrats controlling all of Congress. Taxes are going to get raised imo.

The turnout is looking to be historic. So most likely Biden will take it home unless something really drastic happens.

lol right now 80m have voted already. voter turn out 4 years ago was 140m.
there 30m outstanding mail in ballots. 51m mail in ballots received already. 27m in person votes.
total mail in ballots is looking to be 90m vs 57m 4 years ago.
anyways the difference is significant! its going ot be a sea of blue due to covid. hate to say it. but the argument for fraud might actually make sense.

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FiveThirtyEight is giving DJT a 20% chance of winning.


I kind of hope DJT wins it, just so I get to hear what nonsense Paul Krugman utters this time around. In 2016 he said that the markets will never recover from Trump’s victory. A 2nd term would probably bring the seven plagues of egypt upon the world.

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Yup we’ll see buddy. If we’ve learned anything from the 2016 election and brexit it’s that we can’t trust the polls. Voter turnout looks up for sure, but there’s go guarantee they all voted for Biden! I predict the market temporarily tanks if Biden wins.

These aren’t polls though. They’re confirmed votes. Early voting is a thing nowadays lol. Anyways republicans edge out on early voting person. But by a very small margin. So unless every republican votes day of, it’s confirmed. The senate will be in an interesting one though since I didn’t bother to look at each swing state turnout. But there is a good chance of blue senate out of this.

at 94m. now. and thats early voting. thats crazy high.

I’ve been crushing the betting markets!

I got 8% return for Biden not dropping out by November 1, 2020.

I got another ~8% return for Biden winning California today.

There is another bet ~20% return that Trump does not win the popular vote.

Back up the dump trucks buddies, pappa is stealing from the partisans. I wish we had elections every year

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This isn’t true! You should pay closer attention :slight_smile:

The polls had huge swings for Trump in the last week. They detected the change.

Gimme ya money Voyager. I nom nom on these bets

Where do you see 20%

Lol. I wouldn’t put a dollar on it. Just that I wouldn’t be surprised if he comes out on top today. Polls showing a landslide for Biden, but these republicans seem to have good luck with the electoral vote. Could be a closer race than most are predicting

My local newspaper cited 538 stats on 30/10

Yes, of course it could. But the size of the polling error would have to be extremely large. It will be interesting to see what happens, but I expect our taxes to be rising soon

biden will win overall vote, and electoral college.
but trump will win vote in person and claim mail fraud.
it’ll be interesting to see what happens after.

It’s pretty crazy to think that we’re actually talking about nonpeaceful transfer of power, election fraud, riots and violence in conjuction with a US presidential election. Add the fact that the Fed in printing money like there’s no tomorrow and you’re checking off quite a few boxes that used to be hallmarks of hacksaw banana republics.

Not looking good for your boy…

The Trump train is off the rails! MAGA express is dead!

Trump winning the popular vote and live betting odds have him at 75% for the win.

Still early, but once again polls look like a complete miss