What tradable asset *doesn’t* behave this way?
Yes but at least in FI/equity you are judging the value of the business on cash flows. There is none of that with gold so it can be incredibly erratic. People by treasuries because they want safe cash flow. There are a million reasons why people buy/sell gold.
The cash flows may be there in FI/equity, but the discount rate that gets applied can still be pretty erratic and have a million reasons why they change.
I’m not saying that this means they are just as erratic as gold (erraticness can change with secuirity, leverage, sectors and flavors, etc.), but the fact that those securities are tied to cash flows (often estimated and guessed at, in the case of equities), doesn’t really mean they are somehow more “solid”. The cash flows can stay the same and even come in as estimated, yet the price will still oscillate hither and yon for a zillion different reasons.
Agreed, and that doesnt mean they are more “solid” just that the typical mentality behind purchasing it is the same. The investor thinks it is undervalued and the securities cash flows are worth more than the market says. For gold it can be people who think the sky is falling on the global economy, people who have some light inflationary worries, companies who make pretty rings, people who want to diversify with commodity exposure.
Its a hard market to game, similar to fx. I started watching gold in 2011 and can safely say I have never had the confidence to invest in it. I was right as often as I was wrong and I would be more confident in getting a fair shake betting on a coin flip with a guy on the subway, or taking it to vegas & putting it all on black.
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Are you trying to pick the same fight with me that you did with BS? I just checked and it was you who made that spelling change.
just messing with you Bchad, do you want me to remove my post?
btw i spotted BS mistake but he kept denying it, but finally admitted it 
Indeed. That’s what draws me to it. It’s much more art than science. You really have to develop a feeling for the market. And as soon as you do, you get monkey-hammered. It’s a lot of fun, really. Just be sure to keep your stops in place.
It’s ok. I’m not angry about it, though I was puzzled and thought: “Oh, maybe THAT’s what BS was ticked off about.”
I was never mad, just having a slowish day and was messing around. I really could do without the extra name calling though.
If you’re going to call me names at least have the decency not to edit it after the fact.
When I was briefly a Boardmember I had this desire to change the text in people’s messages to mess with them and make them think they were going crazy. I never did, but the temptation was strong.
I’ve known that temptation too, but have not yeilded to it.
Based on how this thread turned to shit, I think it’s time to go long gold.
I dunno, even I think that’s being a little sensitive.
Bchad as mod deleted about 10 posts of a minor spat between igor and himself.
For the record, you’re not on my sh*tlist or on probation or anything. I enjoy most of your posts.
I just would prefer that you (and others) refrain from posting things that other readers without more context might interpret as “the mods aren’t trustworthy,” unless you are making a genuine complaint of the type. Things can get out of control quickly if the mods are perceived to be unethical, so things that read that way either need to be satirical in an extremely obvious way (this one read to me as “he’s probably joking, but it’s not really clear”), or they need to be genuine complaints raised in seriousness.
This was gold!
I haven’t logged in 2 days and figured out you guys were talking out of topic even though at the beginning of the thread,we were getting valuable posts from everyone.
Please let’s talk about GOLD again.
What do you think the rally after Fed announcement?
A rally after the Fed announcement seems to support the view that gold’s price is being driven these days by the belief that the Fed will or will not be able to unwind QE. News that supports the idea that the Fed will hold off on raising rates pushes the gold price up, and news that the Fed will raise rates pushes it down.
However, looking at the GLD chart, I don’t think the rally marks a substantial break from the trend yet. If GLD gets above $115 and stays there for more than a short time, then there is a technical case for saying that there is a break in the downward trend in gold.
