Higher education is a gatekeeping industry. Studies suggest that college educated earners tend to earn about $1,000,000 more over a lifetime than those without a college education. Over a 40 year career, that amounts to about $25k per year (without corrections for time value). I don’t know how well performed those studies are. Given that the children of rich families are more likely to go to college, and also more likely to have the connections required to get a well-paying job, an obvious test would be to control for the income of the parents and immediate family. I don’t know if they did that, but it would be an obvious criticism that they probably would have to deal with before publishing results. In any case, this suggests that college will continue to be something to pursue until: PV(4 years of college expenses) = PV(excess earnings vs no college over a lifetime) If you can expect about $1M over a lifetime, one could come up with an IRR for different colleges and see if the rate of return looks like sufficient compensation for the risk that you may not get that $1M or not. So it still looks like there is room for tuition prices to rise, although the exporting of jobs is bringing that number down.
CFABLACKBELT Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > marcus phoenix Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > Actually its not the number of degrees that is > the > > problem but the number of jobs and industries > that > > have been shipped overseas that has led to the > > glut of graduates. > > > > When we don’t have much of an industrial or > > scientific base left anymore, why would we need > > that many college graduates? > > > Last time I checked, most of the jobs shipped > overseas did not require a college education… Hmmm? What about all the Infotech and R&D jobs that are offshored? Also manufacturing is a lot more complicated and is more than putting a few bolts on a micriwave. Remember, all your complex products such as cellphones, Ipads, semiconductors are made overseas and you are losing the technological know how that goes along with their production.
^ i don’t think there are many phd’s along the iPad assembly line.
Huh what? I don’t think that’s how consumer electronics work. Sure, Hon Hai has 500,000 Chinese workers putting together iPods and LCD screens. However, the PhD guy who designed your quad core CPU is not outsourced - he’s still in Mountain View. In fact, the situation is almost backwards from what you described. More than 60% of advanced degree science students in the US are foreign born. These people are ditching their home countries by the thousands to work in the US. Brain drain is a huge problem in many Asian countries.
ohai Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Huh what? I don’t think that’s how consumer > electronics work. Sure, Hon Hai has 500,000 > Chinese workers putting together iPods and LCD > screens. However, the PhD guy who designed your > quad core CPU is not outsourced - he’s still in > Mountain View. In fact, the situation is almost > backwards from what you described. More than 60% > of advanced degree science students in the US are > foreign born. These people are ditching their home > countries by the thousands to work in the US. > Brain drain is a huge problem in many Asian > countries. This wont last for long. Many are now returning back home with the US economy in the cr@pper. Reverse brain drain will be the new problem, especially with the upcoming cuts in science and education spending under the new congress.
BValGuy Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > ^ i don’t think there are many phd’s along the > iPad assembly line. But there a lot of industrial, mechanical and electrical engineers.
I agree that SOME consulting jobs have gone overseas, but that isn’t what you said. You specifically mentioned the manufacture of the iPad.
marcus phoenix Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > ohai Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > Huh what? I don’t think that’s how consumer > > electronics work. Sure, Hon Hai has 500,000 > > Chinese workers putting together iPods and LCD > > screens. However, the PhD guy who designed your > > quad core CPU is not outsourced - he’s still in > > Mountain View. In fact, the situation is almost > > backwards from what you described. More than > 60% > > of advanced degree science students in the US > are > > foreign born. These people are ditching their > home > > countries by the thousands to work in the US. > > Brain drain is a huge problem in many Asian > > countries. > > > This wont last for long. Many are now returning > back home with the US economy in the cr@pper. > Reverse brain drain will be the new problem, > especially with the upcoming cuts in science and > education spending under the new congress. That part I can somewhat agree with, at least in medical devices. Tons of Chinese researchers are going home b/c there are less stringent regulations and more $$$ for research. But what do you really propose to do about it? I might agree to stopping the cuts towards science, but not so much for education. I would suggest not cuts if the $ would actually go towards productive uses and not bloated guvment salaries and benefits. Even better would be a clearer tax and regulatory environment, but I doubt that will happen b/c the effects take longer and just won’t do for a politician needing talking points to get re-elected.
Biomedical research in Asia is not a new thing - South Korea and Singapore, for instance, have produced great research due to conducive regulatory environments. However, this has little to do with electronics. Using biomedical device research to describe the electronics industry is like comparing Boeing to GM. They’re not the same thing. Additionally, just because some country (like China) is growing in science doesn’t mean that it will lead to the demise of such industries in countries like the US. As education in China gets better, the number of advanced degree-eligible people will increase in general.
To those that think the US is screwed: Fact: The US has probably the best, richest geography of any country. Thanks for all the stealin’ pilgrims (and the Louisiana Purchase, man remind me never to work for a French bank). Fact:The US has probably the best research university network of any individual country. This can change, but it takes a long time. There are other supporting arguments, but just taking the above I would not worry about competitiveness in the near term. Everything has to reach critical mass. I actually hope we have some honest to god slow, steady growth going forward. It beats financially engineered strong expansions. On education: Technology leads to productivity gains which means we require fewer workers to generate the same level of output. I’m sure everyone knows that productivity is at highs right now. We need the education system to give people something to do while they’re not needed in the work force. This has been the trend for some time (since WWII?) and I think it will continue.
US companies will do well. It’s the ordinary American who is screwed.
bchadwick Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > US companies will do well. It’s the ordinary > American who is screwed. Agreed. The future looks bleak for America…very bleak. Some of the people on here are living in a nice fantasy. 14 Trillion dollars of debt with no way to pay it off is no joke.
Assuming no graduate degree I imagine that a large sample of any undergraduate business or engineering degree from an accredited college, with a brick and mortar campus, would result in a median pay gap over the working life of at least 25k per year ($1MM over the working life) and I’d actually be surprised if it weren’t quite a bit higher than that. But if you take a group of college graduates with degrees in Spanish, English, Art History, African Studies, Sociology, Psychology, etc. the pay gap will be negligible because they’ll often be doing the exact same jobs as the non-degree holders. UOP and other ‘online colleges’ would probably fall into this category as well, regardless of the degree one holds. So, I think the amount of the income gap totally depends on the breakdown of degrees among American college students as well as the percentage choosing to do the online college. Based on zero research I feel fairly confident that a business or engineering degree from any brick and mortar college is likely to be a good investment for a young non-degree holder.
get a law degree - they have this country by the b@lls
marcus phoenix Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- >The future looks bleak for America…very > bleak. Some of the people on here are living in a > nice fantasy. US not being a hegemon does not equal a bleak future. It’s a global world, so get used to it. In the states, if you/parents want to make something of themselves/their children, then you have an opportunity to do it and you have the resources. But there are pluses and minuses to determining your own future: you are allowed to have potential still be an idiot. That is much more difficult to accomplish in many countries, China included. Also, it is all about where you are coming from. In a survey of the the most optimistic and most pessimistic countries that was recently released, Vietnam was the most optimistic. It is the magnitude and direction of change that matters, not the level. > 14 Trillion dollars of debt with no way to pay it > off is no joke. Finally, a point related to finance. While I agree that the national debt is nothing to scoff at (at which to scoff?), global interest rate and currency policy seems like it may be moving to take care of this. Don’t want hijack, but US is keep rates very low and China is finding itself forced to raise interest rates (and eventually further relax currency bands, I bet) in the face of inflation. I would bet (and current do) that the US sees substantial inflation in the next 5 years.
brain_wash_your_face Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Don’t want hijack, but US is > keep rates very low and China is finding itself > forced to raise interest rates (and eventually > further relax currency bands, I bet) in the face > of inflation. I would bet (and current do) that > the US sees substantial inflation in the next 5 > years. as long as the US keeps the Chinese govt out of the Facebook IPO, I bet we’re back on track by 2014
brain_wash_your_face Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > marcus phoenix Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > >The future looks bleak for America…very > > bleak. Some of the people on here are living in > a > > nice fantasy. > > US not being a hegemon does not equal a bleak > future. It’s a global world, so get used to it. It equals a bleak future for Americans…like he said. He never mentioned it would be a bleak future for the rest of the world.
marcus phoenix Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > This wont last for long. Many are now returning > back home with the US economy in the cr@pper. > Reverse brain drain will be the new problem, > especially with the upcoming cuts in science and > education spending under the new congress. Don’t worry about this, reverse brain drain is neither happening nor is going to happen, recession just slowed it for a while. Recession kinda created an illusion of Asia rising, so it held on for a bit during a recession, but after some time now everyone is back to reality, i.e. Quality of life in US (and other developed nations), even as a clerk, or chef, or plumber is far better then quality of life of best engineers, doctors, or premium talent in any field for first five to ten years or even longer in some cases. Once you get money you can buy your oasis here, till then; just pack your bags and move to whichever developed nation you want to live in. It’s a no brainer, whatever happens to economy, quality of life is real deal breaker, because the ‘base’ level for comparison is really really low!
el duque Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > brain_wash_your_face Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > > US not being a hegemon does not equal a bleak > > future. It’s a global world, so get used to it. > > > It equals a bleak future for Americans…like he > said. He never mentioned it would be a bleak > future for the rest of the world. Being a global hegemon means you dominate the world with or without people’s consent. So, you are saying that the other countries’ having a degree of self-determination and seeing a more multi-polar world equals a bleak future for the US? I bet you’re unhappy when your friend or neighbor has a big bonus year? It amazes me how everyone thinks purely in relative terms.
Bernanke Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Quality of life in US (and other developed > nations), even as a clerk, or chef, or plumber is > far better then quality of life of best engineers, > doctors, or premium talent in any field for first > five to ten years or even longer in some cases. exactly - people think those from developing nations who go to the US for school/training are going to return to their developing naiton to help build it, but after being here for a few years realize how bad off they and their family are/were in that country. in most cases they stay in the US and bring their family with them.