It’s at $145 now, down $15. I think it can trip below $140 intraday or by close. Your guess?
It can go to 0. Can’t go below that.
It will pick back up in afternoon trading. shorts will cover…anything can happen over the weekend so no one wants to be exposed
I just purchased 100 JUL 120 PUTS, I missed Lehman and Bear Stearns. I’m not going to miss GS. it is going to snowball very quickly, no one wants to be left holding the bag
timotimo Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I just purchased 100 JUL 120 PUTS, I missed Lehman > and Bear Stearns. I’m not going to miss GS. > > it is going to snowball very quickly, no one wants > to be left holding the bag I’m leaning towards purchasing some GS calls. They always bounce back. They own they gov’t so they definitely won’t fail anytime soon.
mep_cfa’10 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > timotimo Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > I just purchased 100 JUL 120 PUTS, I missed > Lehman > > and Bear Stearns. I’m not going to miss GS. > > > > it is going to snowball very quickly, no one > wants > > to be left holding the bag > > > I’m leaning towards purchasing some GS calls. They > always bounce back. They own they gov’t so they > definitely won’t fail anytime soon. Be careful, I people were against me with AAPL and GOOG and the short positions I had with them made me a fortune. GS isn’t going to bounce back, ever
First S&P now BofA, : http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100430-711244.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines Goldman Sachs Cut To Neutral From Buy By BofA-Merrill >GS Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch said Friday that they are lowering their rating on Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) to neutral from buy and their price target for the bank’s stock to $160 a share from $220 a share. The analysts said the downgrade was prompted by news reports that federal prosecutors are conducting a criminal investigation into whether Goldman or its staff committed securities fraud. “We continue to believe that Goldman has long-term earnings power beyond what is discounted in the share price,” wrote the Merrill analysts. “However, it is very difficult to see the shares making further progress until the matter has been resolved.” -By Sam Mamudi, 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com
timotimo Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > First S&P now BofA, : > > > > http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100430-71124 > 4.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines > > Goldman Sachs Cut To Neutral From Buy By > BofA-Merrill >GS > > Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch said > Friday that they are lowering their rating on > Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) to neutral from buy > and their price target for the bank’s stock to > $160 a share from $220 a share. > > The analysts said the downgrade was prompted by > news reports that federal prosecutors are > conducting a criminal investigation into whether > Goldman or its staff committed securities fraud. > > “We continue to believe that Goldman has long-term > earnings power beyond what is discounted in the > share price,” wrote the Merrill analysts. > “However, it is very difficult to see the shares > making further progress until the matter has been > resolved.” > > -By Sam Mamudi, 415-439-6400; > AskNewswires@dowjones.com classic analyst herding…the only thing that will constitute an upgrade for them is if the stock moves up 10% on good news. Analysts who hedge their bets to save their bonuses on call performance shouldn’t be trusted
Maybe someone is shorting the sh!t out of them like Lehman and Bear claimed they did . karma is a b!tch.
The whole GS suit is overblown. Give it a couple of months. The SEC will lay their “smack down” of a whopping $100MM fine, which is what GS’s trading unit makes in 1 day.
timotimo Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I just purchased 100 JUL 120 PUTS, I missed Lehman > and Bear Stearns. I’m not going to miss GS. > > it is going to snowball very quickly, no one wants > to be left holding the bag LOL. Go big or go home!
timotimo Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I just purchased 100 JUL 120 PUTS, I missed Lehman > and Bear Stearns. I’m not going to miss GS. > > it is going to snowball very quickly, no one wants > to be left holding the bag LOL. Go big or go home!
BizBanker Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Maybe someone is shorting the sh!t out of them > like Lehman and Bear claimed they did . karma is a > b!tch. Come on. I usually agree with your posts, but in the final analysis it’s been conclusively shown short selling had nothing to do with the collapse of Bear or Lehman. Plus, GS has something BSC and LEH lacked: Solvency.
timotimo Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I just purchased 100 JUL 120 PUTS, I missed Lehman > and Bear Stearns. I’m not going to miss GS. > > it is going to snowball very quickly, no one wants > to be left holding the bag LEH and BS went under due to lack of liquidity not because of pending law suits. GS will bounce back hard into the close. We will see GS $150 EOD. Buying 100 x 120 July Puts is retarded. You essentially bought 100 lottery tickets.
True, I am not a street “playa” and only have peripheral knowledge of the i banks, but I am trying to get through Too Big Too Fail with all their interviews and such. I just recall Fuld and Schwartz complaining about short sellers driving their stock down. I think the drop is more along the lines of public perception and what many of the state pension funds and muni governments will do when their constituents find out they do business with GS. Meg Whitman in CA is already on the defense for the accusations of spinning IPOs as a GS client.
timotimo Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > mep_cfa’10 Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > timotimo Wrote: > > > -------------------------------------------------- > > > ----- > > > I just purchased 100 JUL 120 PUTS, I missed > > Lehman > > > and Bear Stearns. I’m not going to miss GS. > > > > > > it is going to snowball very quickly, no one > > wants > > > to be left holding the bag > > > > > > I’m leaning towards purchasing some GS calls. > They > > always bounce back. They own they gov’t so they > > definitely won’t fail anytime soon. > > Be careful, I people were against me with AAPL and > GOOG and the short positions I had with them made > me a fortune. > > GS isn’t going to bounce back, ever Why? You made money on AAPL shorts because the market exploded, not because you have some special insight into AAPL. 2 years later and AAPL is at an all time high. It’s been a rougher ride for GOOG but they’re close to pre-crash levels.
at this point the most reasonable play is buying puts, i don’t think anybody has an informational edge here. Stock may bounce back to $150, maybe even $160 but from there? It’s a very tough call we’ll see how things workout for Goldman next couple quarters. I don’t think they will have a problem with FICC revenues but I feel like IB arm revenues will be weaker unless we see a significant pick up in M&A activity. I believe 2Q and 3Q earnings announcements will be one of the most interesting calls this year. One guy is bearish another one is bullish, that makes it a market! I love this game:)
itstoohot Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > at this point the most reasonable play is buying > puts, i don’t think anybody has an informational > edge here. No one on this forum, anyway. I’m sitting this one out.
wow just when I think timotimo has made the most astute analysis in the whole world he one ups himself 
GS will be fine- they will get a huge fine for show but they will be fine.
Chuckrox8 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > timotimo Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > I just purchased 100 JUL 120 PUTS, I missed > Lehman > > and Bear Stearns. I’m not going to miss GS. > > > > it is going to snowball very quickly, no one > wants > > to be left holding the bag > > LEH and BS went under due to lack of liquidity not > because of pending law suits. > > GS will bounce back hard into the close. We will > see GS $150 EOD. > > Buying 100 x 120 July Puts is retarded. You > essentially bought 100 lottery tickets. Exactly.