Timo, GS is up by $5. Your puts position still in the black?
AlphaSeeker Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Timo, GS is up by $5. Your puts position still in > the black? Doubt it. Looks like the July 120 Puts were trading at $3.60+ after 10am on Friday…$3.35 now.
BizBanker Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I am going to bet on the people and not the > numbers on this one. I think that when ordinary > people, teachers, firemen, municipal workers > realize that many of their pensions do business > with GS they will be pretty mad and may put > pressure on the managers to disassociate with GS. > I know that CALPERS said they would maintain their > relationship with GS for now, but this latest > round of testimony hasnt made its full penetration > through the internets. And Greece? While GS may be > a scapegoat here, doesnt it seem odd that GS keeps > making money and alot of securities they touch > turn to dirt? Great Post BizBanker! This has been happening with GSAM, which had record outflows in 1Q10. I don’t know about their other units, but GSAM will get hammered - They may not lose a lot of HNW clients but they will lose pension/municipal/sovereign money for sure.
^^ Thats how I would apply the mosaic theory here. While the fundamentals certainly show that GS is profitable and trades above BV, (not sure, I havent analyzed it) the franchise value will definitely take a hit as the Wall St vs. Main St. dialogue continues to heat up. Speaking to people who arent analysts but rather are still contributing to pensions, if they can consolidate and organize, they will be able to put pressure on their political leaders and appointees who are beholden to their constituents. Whether or not they understand how Wall Street works or doesnt, they know that their houses are devalued and they are being laid off, while record profits abound and their retirement packages are being threatened. I saw the movie Wall Street again and it never gets old. In and out to make a buck, and he dont take prisoners.
joemontana Wrote: ----------------------------------------------------- > > Great Post BizBanker! This has been happening > with GSAM, which had record outflows in 1Q10. I > don’t know about their other units, but GSAM will > get hammered - They may not lose a lot of HNW > clients but they will lose > pension/municipal/sovereign money for sure. GS will be fine, even if GSAM goes bust. GSAM has been getting killed because they are all marketing and the appearance of research with no actual results. Some co-workers of my used to work there and they essentially said the culture put them in the business of explaining the past and not being opportunistic or proactive with their investing at all. Very rigid and slow moving, focused on gravitas over results. Add that to the inherent conflicts of running prop money while also selling asset management services (many of them quant) and you have a pretty crappy culture in which to succeed.
lets get one thing clear, if GS goes bust, a lot of you guys looking for good jobs will be out of luck. GS still has a lot of brand value and anybody aside from the few will have their resume glowing when applying for jobs. secondly, GS won’t go bust, at least not in the same way as lehman. their leverage ratio is extremely strong along with their capital. the fundamentals are there for the bank not to have a run on its money. in terms of its earning power going forward, still not exactly sure. GS is definitely not the most profitable firm in history or even close to it. might be the most profitable financial services firm though.
eureka Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- “Some co-workers of my used to work there and they essentially said the culture” You’re an expert then
Agree with Frank – GS will likely take a hit but not go to zero. Inflation adjusted, I doubt they are the most profitable financial services firm in history. I’m sure various Rothschild firms did better in other centuries. Same with JPM in the late 1800’s.
joemontana Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > eureka Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > “Some co-workers of my used to work there and they > essentially said the culture” > > You’re an expert then Never said I was an expert, just figured I would say how I got this information (or misinformation depending on opinion). Clearly a biased sample since they chose to leave the place, but I’ve heard the same rap from multiple people.
They manage half a Trillion. There will be good groups and bad groups.
That $5800 - $5700 paper profit on friday is now a $6700 paper loss. I took off the stops and am now willing to lose it all. It is only 41K which isn’t that much. I missed out on lehman and still think GS will be 120 by july(if not zero) and if you look at he volume on may 120 puts today I’m not the only one.