I am not denying anyone’s right to be confident, I am saying that they can be wrong to be confident.
We don’t know if TRH was the absolutely last person, but we can guess based on his distribution that he was at the lower end, near the cutoff for passing.
I am not commenting on his optimism, in fact I agree with you that he was optimistic and was right to be optimistic. However, optimism is not confidence. Optimism implies blind hope and faith whereas confidence implies calculated hope.
I don’t feel like I am spending any effort, I am enjoying this immensely. If you do concede that I am right, we can stop this right now. But I don’t quit in the middle of a duel. Plus, if you quit first, it gives me the bragging rights of “having had the last word while arguing with NANA”. On AF, that has to be worth its weight in gold (or the dime slayings purportedly committed by members.)
Now you are arguing for the sake of arguing… it’s pointless.
I just dislike the fact that people try to belittle others, whether they do it intentionally or unintentionally. Let’s face it, we aren’t 12 years old, and i think it’s clear that by pointing out that he scraped through by the skin of his teeth and his confidence was misplaced was a way of putting him down - or in your case “put him in his place”.
I think such act is juvenille and possibly worse than being too confident on one’s performance on a CFA exam. At least his confidence wasn’t targetted at anyone.
It is not belittling someone if you point out (without any insults) that they were wrong. Truth is truth. Even if we accept your accusation about my motives (which I don’t), that does not negate my logic. Let’s say I am trying to insult TRH by calling his confidence misplaced (I am not but let’s say I am.) But it can still be true that his confidence was misplaced. Sure, I am committing a worse sin by putting him down, but that doesn’t make him right. He is still wrong.
I don’t understand your confidence that I was wrong. I could have been borderline, but I might not have been. I think you’re being overconfident in your analysis.
The one thing we do know is that I passed. So, spending all this time calling my confidence misplaced is pretty BS. I don’t mind an insult or being put in my place. But you’re making a lot of assumptions.
My score is pretty much what I expected it to be. I bombed 4 questions which i basically ran out of time on. I was surprised that I did not have higher than 70 in most of the other questions, but that doesn’t mean that I didn’t have high 60’s. Furthermore, I had higher than 70 in the two most important questions worth 20 points, and in the afternoon I spanked Alts which was worth 36 points. The afternoon I did well on and knew it. So really the outcome was more or less what I expected I was just suprised by the severity of the grading on the morning session. Obviously the MPS is most likely somewhere well below 70.
It felt like a pass, based on previous experience at levels 2 and 1, and it was. Confidence properly placed.
TRH, I am not trying to insult you in any way. I do have a disagreement on what is “properly placed confidence.” Ends don’t always justify the path. You were confident and you passed, that is necessary but not sufficient to show that your confidence was justified.
Rather than rehashing what I have said throughout the thread, I’d just rather agree to disagree at this point.
Most of why I have stuck to this topic like a fly to a honeytrap is that I like debating with NANA and see how many distractions and red herrings she can come up with. The whole “don’t insult TRH, you’re no better” stuff, for example. (The counter-argument to any such argument is simple - two wrongs don’t make a right.)
I just want bragging rights that I got the last word on a debate with NANA, based on logic and calm reason, without any name-calling.
BTW, nitpick: don’t mention what topics were tested in the PM.
Now you are basing your logic on what’s “technically correct”.
So if you see a mentally retarded person walking down the street, it is okay to point at him and say “hey retard!” according to your logic because it is technically correct…
Not at all, because “hey retard” is clearly offensive.
Did I say TRH should not have passed? Did I point fingers at him and laugh? No and no.
However, it is also not OK to say that the “mentaly retarded person” (BTW “developmentally challenged” is a less offensive term at least in US) has the same intelligence as an average person. That is false, no matter how politely phrased and how devoutly wished for. Truth is truth.
My point is to point out the logical flaw in claiming that a flawed methodology is justified based on the end result.
If I predicted that the Saints will win the Super Bowl because I found a four-leaf clover in the garden, and then they do win, does that make my method of prediction right?
I want to educate people like you on the basic difference between being right and being lucky. That’s a great public service for all AF participants. And it’s free education. I should get a freaking medal.
^ There is no Nobel prize for selfless public service… but if it makes you feel better, you can nominate me for the Nobel Peace Prize.
EDIT: I am not quite sure how adding 1 + 2 is the same as predicting anything, please explain.
And clearly, winning the lottery has nothing to do with your confidence about winning the lottery, so you’re kind of weakening your own argument there. If there is an argument you are trying to make.
My comment was just to show my lack of knowledge for the distinction between luck and rightness before you enlighten me, it has nothing to do with predictability.
I don’t know what you guys are arguing about. I found it amusing that TRH just declared he passed after the exam. Anyways I wish I had that confidence, would have made my next two months better.
Me too, i think confidence is crucial in the finance business. most of the time it’s about how confident you are and how much you can convince others that you are competent. actual results are often overlooked.
I am glad you understand the distinction now, thanks to my untiring and selfless efforts. You are very welcome. A patient teacher is hard to come by, let alone one who will teach people for free.
